The School of Odds
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Mito HollyHock v Urawa Red Diamonds

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 05:00 UTC

Final: Mito HollyHock 1–4 Urawa Red Diamonds

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mito HollyHock (Local)

Prediction 23.80%4.20fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -0.586%
Kelly -0.775%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.11%24.25%23.82%28.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.773.854.1031.25%26.54%25.97%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit)

Prediction 48.01%2.08fair odd
EV +5.61%
Edge +2.55%
Kelly +4.68%
Growth +0.263%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%47.53%47.99%48.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.951.912.2054.05%51.41%52.36%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.19%3.55fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -0.712%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.56%28.22%28.19%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.233.253.4633.33%30.91%30.77%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mito HollyHock (Local): 23.80%; Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit): 48.01%; Draw: 28.19%. For Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.08. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -23.83%E -7.45%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV +5.61%E +2.55%K +4.68%G +0.263%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-07 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -21.45%E -6.50%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV +3.21%E +1.49%K +2.79%G +0.090%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -15.43%E -5.14%K -7.72%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 21:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -21.45%E -6.50%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV +3.21%E +1.49%K +2.79%G +0.090%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -15.43%E -5.14%K -7.72%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 21:05
Pinnacle🎯4.06I 24.63%NM 23.79%EV -3.36%E -0.826%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.29%EV -3.99%E -1.99%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.92%EV -2.47%E -0.712%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-09 04:10
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -2.40%E -0.586%K -0.775%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.60%EV -6.39%E -3.28%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.29%EV -5.57%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 04:14
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -7.16%E -1.84%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -6.39%E -3.28%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.98%E -2.11%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 04:08
NordicBet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -8.35%E -2.17%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -6.39%E -3.28%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.38%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 04:14
Betsson🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -8.35%E -2.17%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -6.39%E -3.28%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.38%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 04:09
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.73%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -6.39%E -3.28%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.38%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 04:09
BetAnything🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.78%E -1.20%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -7.35%E -3.81%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -5.57%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 04:14
Marathon Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -4.78%E -1.20%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.58%EV -7.83%E -4.08%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.10%EV -6.41%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 04:14
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -4.78%E -1.20%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -8.31%E -4.35%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.98%E -2.11%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 04:14
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -7.16%E -1.84%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -8.31%E -4.35%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 04:14
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -7.16%E -1.84%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -8.31%E -4.35%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 04:14
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -10.73%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -8.31%E -4.35%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -8.38%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 04:08
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -14.31%E -3.97%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -8.31%E -4.35%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-09 04:09
Betclic (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -8.35%E -2.17%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.20%EV -8.79%E -4.62%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.01%EV -7.82%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 04:09
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -11.92%E -3.22%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.86%EV -8.79%E -4.62%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -6.98%E -2.11%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 04:09
Unibet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -8.35%E -2.17%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -9.75%E -5.18%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -8.38%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 04:09
Winamax (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.89%EV -15.50%E -4.36%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 47.50%EV -10.71%E -5.76%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-09 04:09
Neds🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -10.73%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -11.19%E -6.05%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 04:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -10.73%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -11.19%E -6.05%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 04:14
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -10.73%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -11.19%E -6.05%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 04:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.12%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.74%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.14%3.1%2026-05-09 02:04