The School of Odds
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Mito HollyHock v Kawasaki Frontale

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 05:00 UTC

Final: Mito HollyHock 1–3 Kawasaki Frontale

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mito HollyHock (Local)

Prediction 32.21%3.10fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.16%32.22%32.19%32.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.852.872.9737.04%35.05%34.84%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kawasaki Frontale (Visit)

Prediction 40.27%2.48fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -2.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.54%40.27%40.30%41.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.302.4046.51%43.98%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.52%3.63fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -0.974%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.62%27.52%27.50%28.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.313.313.5131.25%30.17%30.17%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mito HollyHock (Local): 32.21%; Kawasaki Frontale (Visit): 40.27%; Draw: 27.52%. For Kawasaki Frontale (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -3.35%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 32.43%EV -4.33%E -1.46%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.13%EV -3.35%E -1.39%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.44%EV -3.42%E -0.974%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-24 04:40
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -4.97%E -1.69%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.37%E -3.21%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-24 04:50
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.80%EV -6.58%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63%EV -3.35%E -1.39%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 04:30
BetAnything🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -6.58%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.81%EV -5.36%E -2.28%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-24 04:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.58%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -7.37%E -3.21%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-24 04:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.25%EV -6.91%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.84%EV -5.76%E -2.46%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.91%EV -8.10%E -2.42%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-24 04:50
NordicBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.24%EV -7.37%E -3.21%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 04:50
Betsson🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.24%EV -7.37%E -3.21%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 04:49
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -11.40%E -5.18%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-24 04:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -11.40%E -5.18%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-24 04:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -7.55%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -11.40%E -5.18%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-24 04:50
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -7.55%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -11.40%E -5.18%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.95%E -3.73%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-24 04:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -8.19%E -2.88%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -10.19%E -4.57%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.31%EV -8.37%E -2.51%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-24 04:47
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.78%EV -8.19%E -2.88%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -11.40%E -5.18%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-24 04:50
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.81%E -3.50%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.37%E -3.21%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-24 04:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.81%E -3.50%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -9.39%E -4.17%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-24 04:50
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.81%E -3.50%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -7.37%E -3.21%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-24 04:50
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.81%E -3.50%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -7.37%E -3.21%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-24 04:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.81%E -3.50%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -7.37%E -3.21%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-24 04:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.81%E -3.50%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -7.37%E -3.21%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-24 04:50
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.81%E -3.50%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -11.40%E -5.18%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-24 04:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -13.03%E -4.82%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -13.42%E -6.24%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-24 04:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.18%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-05-24 04:50