Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mito HollyHock v JEF United Chiba

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

42%

28%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mito HollyHock (Local)

Prediction 41.83%2.39fair odd

EV +0.383%

Edge +0.160%

Kelly +0.274%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.33%41.85%41.71%42.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.082.202.192.4048.08%45.48%45.77%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JEF United Chiba (Visit)

Prediction 28.39%3.52fair odd

EV -0.350%

Edge -0.100%

Kelly -0.140%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.58%28.46%28.58%31.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.923.173.153.5134.25%31.60%31.75%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.78%3.36fair odd

EV -4.40%

Edge -1.37%

Kelly -1.99%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.68%29.70%29.72%30.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.003.083.083.2133.33%32.46%32.52%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mito HollyHock (Local): 41.83%; JEF United Chiba (Visit): 28.39%; Draw: 29.78%. For Mito HollyHock (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.383%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
NordicBet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV +0.383%E +0.160%K +0.274%G +0.001%	2.92I 34.25%NM 31.51%EV -17.10%E -5.86%K -8.91%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-02-22 03:30
Pinnacle🎯	2.29I 43.67%NM 42.27%EV -4.22%E -1.84%K -3.27%G +0.000%	3.51I 28.49%NM 27.58%EV -0.350%E -0.100%K -0.140%G +0.000%	3.21I 31.15%NM 30.15%EV -4.40%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-02-22 03:30
DraftKings🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-02-22 03:30
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.88%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-22 03:45
Betsson🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 41.50%EV -7.15%E -3.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.15%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-02-22 03:44
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -10.07%E -4.69%K -8.76%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.88%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-02-22 03:45
BoyleSports🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.07%E -4.69%K -8.76%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.33%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-02-22 03:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 41.87%EV -12.16%E -5.79%K -11.06%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -13.41%E -4.40%K -6.54%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.33%G +0.000%	13.7%	2026-02-22 03:45
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 41.66%EV -12.16%E -5.79%K -11.06%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -16.25%E -5.51%K -8.33%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 28.68%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%	14.3%	2026-02-22 03:45
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.08I 48.08%NM 42.18%EV -13.00%E -6.25%K -12.04%G +0.000%	3.07I 32.57%NM 28.58%EV -12.84%E -4.18%K -6.20%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.24%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.33%G +0.000%	14.0%	2026-02-22 03:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.