The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Mito HollyHock v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 05:00 UTC

Final: Mito HollyHock 0–3 Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mito HollyHock (Local)

Prediction 13.80%7.25fair odd
EV +10.37%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.154%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.91%13.75%13.89%15.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.646.608.0018.18%15.07%15.15%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit)

Prediction 66.47%1.50fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -8.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.24%66.52%66.41%69.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.391.401.4578.74%72.19%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.73%5.07fair odd
EV +0.646%
Edge +0.127%
Kelly +0.158%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.62%19.72%19.71%20.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.594.505.1023.26%21.81%22.22%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mito HollyHock (Local): 13.80%; Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit): 66.47%; Draw: 19.73%. For Mito HollyHock (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.25. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV +10.37%E +1.30%K +1.48%G +0.154%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -8.27%E -5.99%K -21.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -1.33%E -0.265%K -0.332%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-30 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV +3.47%E +0.463%K +0.535%G +0.019%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.41%EV -9.60%E -7.06%K -26.67%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.18%EV -4.29%E -0.884%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-30 17:05
Bet Right🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV +3.47%E +0.463%K +0.535%G +0.019%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.87%EV -10.27%E -7.61%K -29.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -9.22%E -2.00%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 17:25
Tipico (DE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV +3.47%E +0.463%K +0.535%G +0.019%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.92%EV -12.26%E -9.29%K -38.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -5.27%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-31 04:55
BetMGM🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 13.01%EV +0.025%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.35%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -5.27%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 04:45
LowVig.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.42%E -0.489%K -0.571%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.62%EV +0.646%E +0.127%K +0.158%G +0.001%5.3%2026-10-31 04:50
ATG (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.42%E -0.489%K -0.571%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.32%EV -6.28%E -4.45%K -15.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -9.22%E -2.00%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-30 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.42%E -0.489%K -0.571%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.32%EV -6.28%E -4.45%K -15.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -9.22%E -2.00%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-30 17:05
SportsBet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -3.42%E -0.489%K -0.571%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.20%EV -7.61%E -5.47%K -19.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.27%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 04:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.42%E -0.489%K -0.571%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-30 17:05
BetRivers🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.42%E -0.489%K -0.571%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-30 17:05
FanDuel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -3.42%E -0.489%K -0.571%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -9.60%E -7.06%K -26.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -5.27%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 04:54
Pinnacle🎯6.95I 14.39%NM 13.88%EV -4.11%E -0.592%K -0.691%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.52%EV -3.62%E -2.50%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.60%EV -2.91%E -0.591%K -0.741%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-31 04:55
BetAnything🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 14.00%EV -6.18%E -0.909%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.57%EV -4.95%E -3.46%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.43%EV -3.30%E -0.674%K -0.846%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 04:55
BetOnline.ag🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.93%EV -6.18%E -0.909%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.73%EV -5.61%E -3.95%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -3.30%E -0.674%K -0.846%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 04:55
TABtouch🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -6.87%E -1.02%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -8.27%E -5.99%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-30 17:05
Grosvenor🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -6.87%E -1.02%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -8.27%E -5.99%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-30 17:05
Casumo🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -6.87%E -1.02%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -8.27%E -5.99%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-30 17:05
Unibet (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -6.87%E -1.02%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -8.27%E -5.99%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-30 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -6.87%E -1.02%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -8.27%E -5.99%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-30 17:05
betPARX🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -6.87%E -1.02%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -8.27%E -5.99%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-30 17:05
Unibet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -6.87%E -1.02%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -8.27%E -5.99%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-30 17:05
Betr (AU)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -6.87%E -1.02%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.87%EV -8.27%E -5.99%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -13.17%E -2.99%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 04:55
LiveScore Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -6.87%E -1.02%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.34%EV -8.94%E -6.52%K -24.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-30 17:05
Virgin Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -6.87%E -1.02%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.34%EV -8.94%E -6.52%K -24.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-30 17:05
1xBet🎯6.60I 15.15%NM 14.38%EV -8.94%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.92%EV -4.28%E -2.98%K -9.74%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.69%EV -4.88%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 04:55
DraftKings🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.88%EV -4.95%E -3.46%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -5.27%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 04:55
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -5.61%E -3.95%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -6.26%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 04:55
PlayUp🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.22%E -2.00%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 04:55
picklebet_au🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.22%E -2.00%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 04:55
888sport🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 04:55
William Hill🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 04:55
888sport (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 04:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 04:55
BoyleSports🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -9.60%E -7.06%K -26.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-30 16:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -11.60%E -8.72%K -35.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -9.22%E -2.00%K -2.56%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 04:45
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -11.60%E -8.72%K -35.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-31 04:00
PMU (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.52%EV -10.32%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.05%EV -11.60%E -8.72%K -35.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.43%EV -15.14%E -3.52%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-30 17:05
Betclic (FR)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 13.69%EV -11.70%E -1.83%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 66.39%EV -12.26%E -9.29%K -38.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.92%EV -13.17%E -2.99%K -3.87%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-31 04:48
Unibet (FR)🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 13.53%EV -13.08%E -2.08%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 67.10%EV -15.58%E -12.27%K -57.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.37%EV -13.17%E -2.99%K -3.87%G +0.000%17.3%2026-10-31 04:50
Bovada🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -13.77%E -2.20%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -4.95%E -3.46%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -9.22%E -2.00%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-31 04:55
Sky Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.32%EV -13.77%E -2.20%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.80%EV -9.60%E -7.06%K -26.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 04:20
NordicBet🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 14.69%EV -14.46%E -2.33%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.07%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 04:55
Betsson🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 14.69%EV -14.46%E -2.33%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.07%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 04:55
Fanatics🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -17.22%E -2.87%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.42%EV -5.61%E -3.95%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -11.19%E -2.49%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 04:55
Neds🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -17.22%E -2.87%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -14.55%E -3.36%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 04:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -17.22%E -2.87%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -14.55%E -3.36%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 04:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -17.22%E -2.87%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -14.55%E -3.36%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 04:55
Coral🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -17.22%E -2.87%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.94%E -4.96%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -14.55%E -3.36%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 04:55
Winamax (DE)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.38%EV -18.60%E -3.15%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 65.30%EV -7.61%E -5.47%K -19.51%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -7.25%E -1.54%K -1.96%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-31 04:55
Winamax (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 15.89%EV -24.12%E -4.39%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.25%EV -9.60%E -7.06%K -26.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.86%EV -13.17%E -2.99%K -3.87%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-31 04:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎7.60I 13.16%NM 13.05%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.49%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%0.8%2026-10-31 04:55
Kalshi◎7.69I 13.00%NM 12.88%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.30%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83%1.0%2026-10-31 04:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.40I 13.51%NM 13.36%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.25%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%1.1%2026-10-31 04:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-10-31 04:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-10-31 04:55
Smarkets◎7.60I 13.16%NM 12.76%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.84%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40%3.1%2026-10-31 04:55