The School of Odds
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Mito HollyHock v FC Tokyo

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mito HollyHock (Local)

Prediction 26.13%3.83fair odd
EV +0.602%
Edge +0.156%
Kelly +0.211%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.09%26.10%26.23%26.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.453.8530.77%28.85%28.99%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Tokyo (Visit)

Prediction 45.00%2.22fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -4.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.91%44.97%44.92%45.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.022.002.1252.08%49.50%50.00%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.87%3.46fair odd
EV -5.02%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.93%28.93%28.86%29.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.153.103.2932.79%31.71%32.26%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mito HollyHock (Local): 26.13%; FC Tokyo (Visit): 45.00%; Draw: 28.87%. For Mito HollyHock (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.602%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 25.09%EV +0.602%E +0.156%K +0.211%G +0.001%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.56%EV -4.60%E -2.17%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.36%EV -5.02%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-14 04:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -4.62%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.49%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.96%EV -7.04%E -2.19%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 04:54
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.18%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 03:44
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.93%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -6.18%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 03:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -6.40%E -3.08%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -6.18%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 04:40
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 03:45
NordicBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 04:39
Betsson🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 04:39
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -8.54%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.00%E -5.00%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-14 04:54
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.16%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -10.00%E -5.00%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.18%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 04:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.16%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.00%E -5.00%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 03:50
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.16%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.00%E -5.00%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 03:50
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.16%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.00%E -5.00%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 03:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.16%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.00%E -5.00%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 03:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 26.32%EV -12.99%E -3.90%K -5.57%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.95%EV -12.25%E -6.28%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.74%EV -11.95%E -3.92%K -5.83%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 04:47
Unibet (FR)🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 26.19%EV -13.25%E -3.99%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.29%EV -13.60%E -7.08%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.51%EV -11.95%E -3.92%K -5.83%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-14 04:49
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -13.77%E -4.17%K -5.99%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.09%EV -13.15%E -6.81%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.53%EV -11.95%E -3.92%K -5.83%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-14 04:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -15.08%E -4.64%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.74%EV -11.80%E -6.02%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-14 04:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.04%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%2.0%2026-03-14 04:55