The School of Odds
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Kyoto Purple Sanga v V-Varen Nagasaki

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 10:00 UTC

Final: Kyoto Purple Sanga 1–0 V-Varen Nagasaki

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local)

Prediction 44.11%2.27fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.64%44.04%44.10%44.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.082.082.2150.51%48.02%48.08%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit)

Prediction 29.20%3.43fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -0.925%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.08%29.20%29.19%30.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.133.133.3233.90%31.99%32.00%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.70%3.75fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.702%
Kelly -0.966%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.07%26.76%26.71%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.393.403.6530.77%29.49%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local): 44.11%; V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit): 29.20%; Draw: 26.70%. For Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.21, with an expected value of -2.52%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.51%EV -2.52%E -1.14%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.14%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -2.56%E -0.702%K -0.966%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-23 09:50
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -5.17%E -2.40%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -6.58%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.23%E -1.47%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 09:49
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.17%E -2.40%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.50%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.90%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 09:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.17%E -2.40%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.50%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.90%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 09:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.17%E -2.40%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.50%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.90%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 09:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.37%E -3.51%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.12%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 09:39
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.37%E -3.51%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.12%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 09:50
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.37%E -3.51%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.58%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.23%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 09:39
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.37%E -3.51%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.50%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.90%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 09:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.82%EV -8.25%E -3.97%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -3.07%E -0.925%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -8.17%E -2.37%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 09:49
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -8.25%E -3.97%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -6.58%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.90%E -2.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 09:39
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -8.25%E -3.97%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -6.58%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.90%E -2.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 09:40
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -6.58%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.23%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-23 09:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.50%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 09:39
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.23%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-23 09:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.24%E -4.07%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-23 09:39
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.24%E -4.07%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-23 09:40
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.24%E -4.07%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-23 09:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.24%E -4.07%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-23 09:38
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 44.69%EV -10.46%E -5.15%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.62%EV -7.45%E -2.35%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.23%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 09:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -11.78%E -5.89%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -8.04%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.23%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-23 09:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.20%EV -12.66%E -6.40%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.67%EV -13.87%E -4.70%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.13%EV -10.57%E -3.16%K -4.50%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-23 09:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-05-23 09:50