The School of Odds
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Kyoto Purple Sanga v Shimizu S Pulse

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 05:00 UTC

Final: Kyoto Purple Sanga 1–2 Shimizu S Pulse

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local)

Prediction 44.47%2.25fair odd
EV -5.73%
Edge -2.70%
Kelly -5.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.22%44.45%44.46%45.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.072.052.1250.00%48.32%48.78%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shimizu S Pulse (Visit)

Prediction 26.51%3.77fair odd
EV +0.221%
Edge +0.059%
Kelly +0.080%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.57%26.55%26.60%27.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.443.453.7831.25%29.06%28.99%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.02%3.45fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -0.830%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.13%29.00%28.93%29.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.173.153.3532.26%31.54%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local): 44.47%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visit): 26.51%; Draw: 29.02%. For Shimizu S Pulse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.221%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.59%EV -5.73%E -2.70%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.57%EV +0.221%E +0.059%K +0.080%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.85%EV -2.78%E -0.830%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 04:55
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%EV -6.62%E -3.15%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -3.23%E -0.884%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.77%EV -4.23%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 04:55
BetAnything🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.01%EV -5.73%E -2.70%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -4.55%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.48%EV -2.78%E -0.830%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 04:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.25%EV -8.40%E -4.08%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.33%EV -6.14%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -4.81%E -1.47%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 04:50
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.62%E -3.15%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 04:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.62%E -3.15%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 04:49
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.62%E -3.15%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 04:50
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 04:50
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 04:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 04:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 04:51
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -6.62%E -3.15%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.53%E -2.47%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -8.59%E -2.73%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 04:50
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -6.62%E -3.15%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.53%E -2.47%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -8.59%E -2.73%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 04:51
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.44%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.64%EV -9.32%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -8.59%E -2.73%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 04:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -11.07%E -5.53%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.85%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -8.59%E -2.73%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-02 04:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -11.18%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.13%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 04:51
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.62%E -3.15%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -12.51%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 04:51
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.62%E -3.15%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.51%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 04:45
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.51%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 04:50
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.51%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 04:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.51%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 04:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.51%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 04:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.05%EV -11.07%E -5.53%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -15.16%E -4.74%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-02 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 44.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 26.23%3.45I 28.99%NM 29.27%-1.0%2026-05-02 04:46