The School of Odds
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Kyoto Purple Sanga v Nagoya Grampus

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local)

Prediction 37.90%2.64fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.710%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.33%38.06%37.80%40.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.242.412.402.5944.64%41.55%41.67%38.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nagoya Grampus (Visit)

Prediction 34.23%2.92fair odd
EV -0.044%
Edge -0.015%
Kelly -0.023%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.57%34.06%34.37%35.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.682.702.9239.22%37.37%37.04%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.87%3.59fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.10%27.88%27.83%28.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.273.253.4531.75%30.56%30.77%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local): 37.90%; Nagoya Grampus (Visit): 34.23%; Draw: 27.87%. For Nagoya Grampus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.921. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.920, with an expected value of -0.044%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.37%EV -1.84%E -0.710%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.57%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.06%EV -3.85%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-22 04:45
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.25%E -2.10%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.86%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 04:29
BetAnything🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.25%E -2.10%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 04:44
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -5.25%E -2.10%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -9.29%E -3.50%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 04:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.61%EV -6.01%E -2.42%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -6.64%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 04:28
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -7.14%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -5.86%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -6.64%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 04:29
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.14%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 04:24
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.14%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 04:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.14%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 04:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.14%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 04:25
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.12%EV -8.28%E -3.42%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.92%EV -6.89%E -2.53%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 04:29
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -5.86%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 04:54
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.57%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.68%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-22 04:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -10.82%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 04:30
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -10.82%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 04:30
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -10.82%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 04:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -10.82%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 04:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -10.93%E -4.65%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -9.29%E -3.50%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -6.64%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 04:30
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -12.83%E -5.58%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.57%EV -0.044%E -0.015%K -0.023%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-22 01:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.16%EV -12.83%E -5.58%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.42%EV -12.71%E -4.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -10.82%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-22 04:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 38.55%EV -13.97%E -6.15%K -11.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.66%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -12.22%E -3.88%K -5.68%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-22 04:43
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.76%EV -14.72%E -6.54%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.69%EV -12.22%E -3.88%K -5.68%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-22 04:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 38.87%EV -15.10%E -6.74%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.49%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.64%EV -12.22%E -3.88%K -5.68%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-22 04:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.71%1.1%2026-03-22 04:54