The School of Odds
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Kyoto Purple Sanga v Kashiwa Reysol

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 10:00 UTC

Final: Kyoto Purple Sanga 2–6 Kashiwa Reysol

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local)

Prediction 29.71%3.37fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.685%
Kelly -0.984%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.05%29.75%29.69%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.063.103.2934.48%32.72%32.26%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kashiwa Reysol (Visit)

Prediction 40.69%2.46fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.59%40.67%40.71%41.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.262.262.3646.51%44.23%44.25%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.60%3.38fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.66%29.58%29.60%30.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.083.103.2733.33%32.42%32.26%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local): 29.71%; Kashiwa Reysol (Visit): 40.69%; Draw: 29.60%. For Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.29, with an expected value of -2.25%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 29.41%EV -2.25%E -0.685%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -3.98%E -1.69%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.59%EV -3.20%E -0.979%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-30 09:40
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 09:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.41%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.75%E -2.14%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-30 09:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.25%EV -8.05%E -3.56%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -3.79%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 09:49
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.23%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-30 08:59
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%EV -7.23%E -3.17%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -8.23%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-30 09:40
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%EV -7.23%E -3.17%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -8.23%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-30 09:40
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 09:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 09:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 09:40
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 09:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.49%E -4.77%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.23%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 09:38
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -12.52%E -5.82%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.23%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-30 09:40
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -9.38%E -3.08%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.49%E -4.77%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -6.75%E -2.14%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 09:40
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.45%E -3.76%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.27%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 09:49
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.45%E -3.76%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-30 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.45%E -3.76%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-30 08:40
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.45%E -3.76%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-30 08:40
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.45%E -3.76%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-30 08:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.45%E -3.76%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-30 08:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.88%EV -12.52%E -5.82%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -9.71%E -3.18%K -4.74%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-30 09:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.59%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%1.0%2026-05-30 09:40