The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kyoto Purple Sanga v Kashima Antlers

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 10:00 UTC

Final: Kyoto Purple Sanga 2–2 Kashima Antlers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local)

Prediction 22.56%4.43fair odd
EV +1.50%
Edge +0.334%
Kelly +0.429%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.22%22.43%22.70%25.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.973.904.5028.57%25.21%25.64%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kashima Antlers (Visit)

Prediction 51.66%1.94fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.969%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.52%51.78%51.51%54.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.801.811.9061.35%55.53%55.25%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.78%3.88fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -0.820%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.09%25.79%25.79%26.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.553.603.7929.85%28.15%27.78%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local): 22.56%; Kashima Antlers (Visit): 51.66%; Draw: 25.78%. For Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.43. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.50%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV +1.50%E +0.334%K +0.429%G +0.006%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.00%EV -7.52%E -4.20%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.92%EV -5.64%E -1.54%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 09:55
FanDuel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +1.50%E +0.334%K +0.429%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.28%EV -11.66%E -6.82%K -16.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-21 09:59
Tipico (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV +1.50%E +0.334%K +0.429%G +0.006%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -13.72%E -8.22%K -20.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-21 09:55
Pinnacle🎯4.48I 22.32%NM 21.54%EV +1.05%E +0.235%K +0.302%G +0.003%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.01%EV -5.97%E -3.28%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.46%EV -2.29%E -0.604%K -0.820%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-21 09:59
BetOnline.ag🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.72%EV -0.754%E -0.171%K -0.222%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.80%EV -6.49%E -3.59%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.48%EV -3.32%E -0.885%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 09:59
LowVig.ag🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%EV -0.754%E -0.171%K -0.222%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -6.49%E -3.59%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 10:00
BetAnything🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%EV -0.754%E -0.171%K -0.222%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -6.49%E -3.59%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 09:59
DraftKings🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -3.01%E -0.700%K -0.912%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.49%EV -7.01%E -3.89%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 09:59
PlayUp🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -4.14%E -0.973%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -9.59%E -5.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -5.90%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:45
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -5.46%E -2.98%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -3.32%E -0.885%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 09:59
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -5.46%E -2.98%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 09:45
BetMGM🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -7.01%E -3.89%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 09:35
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.52%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -5.97%E -3.28%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 09:45
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -7.52%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.36%EV -6.49%E -3.59%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.97%EV -7.70%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 09:40
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -7.52%E -1.83%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -5.46%E -2.98%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 09:40
picklebet_au🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.78%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.01%E -3.89%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 09:45
Bet Right🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -9.78%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.10%EV -7.01%E -3.89%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-21 10:00
NordicBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -9.78%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -7.01%E -3.89%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -11.05%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-21 09:45
Betsson🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -9.78%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -7.01%E -3.89%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -11.05%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-21 09:45
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.78%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.01%E -3.89%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.34%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-21 09:40
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.78%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.01%E -3.89%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.34%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-21 09:40
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.78%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.01%E -3.89%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.34%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-21 09:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.78%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.01%E -3.89%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.34%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-21 09:40
Winamax (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -12.03%E -3.09%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.26%EV -8.04%E -4.52%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-21 09:44
Betr (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -12.03%E -3.09%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.89%EV -8.04%E -4.52%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-21 09:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -12.03%E -3.09%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -9.59%E -5.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -12.34%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-21 09:36
Coral🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -12.03%E -3.09%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -9.59%E -5.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -12.34%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-21 09:36
Neds🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -12.03%E -3.09%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -9.59%E -5.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -12.34%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-21 09:36
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -12.03%E -3.09%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -9.59%E -5.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -12.34%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-21 09:35
Betclic (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.76%EV -13.16%E -3.42%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 51.24%EV -11.66%E -6.82%K -16.42%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.00%EV -13.12%E -3.89%K -5.53%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-21 09:44
Unibet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.17%EV -13.16%E -3.42%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 52.36%EV -15.79%E -9.69%K -25.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.48%EV -13.63%E -4.07%K -5.80%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-21 09:45
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -14.29%E -3.76%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -1.84%E -0.969%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-21 08:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -14.29%E -3.76%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.76%EV -2.87%E -1.53%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -5.90%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 09:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -14.29%E -3.76%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.76%EV -2.87%E -1.53%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -5.90%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 09:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -14.29%E -3.76%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -4.42%E -2.39%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:20
BetRivers🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -14.29%E -3.76%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -4.42%E -2.39%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -14.29%E -3.76%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.33%EV -10.11%E -5.81%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-21 09:45
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.96%EV -4.94%E -2.69%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-21 09:20
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -5.46%E -2.98%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -5.46%E -2.98%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:20
TABtouch🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -5.46%E -2.98%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -5.46%E -2.98%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:20
Casumo🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -5.46%E -2.98%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:20
betPARX🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -5.46%E -2.98%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:19
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.05%EV -5.97%E -3.28%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.05%EV -5.97%E -3.28%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:20
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -7.01%E -3.89%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-21 09:00
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -18.80%E -5.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -4.42%E -2.39%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-21 08:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -18.80%E -5.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -4.42%E -2.39%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-21 09:45
PMU (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -18.80%E -5.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.84%EV -9.07%E -5.16%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -12.34%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-21 09:20
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -21.05%E -6.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -5.46%E -2.98%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -12.34%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-21 09:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.22%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-10-21 09:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.22%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-10-21 09:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.04%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.96%1.4%2026-10-21 09:55
Matchbook◎4.70I 21.28%NM 20.93%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.18%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.89%1.6%2026-10-21 09:55
Kalshi◎4.76I 21.01%NM 20.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.91%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48%1.9%2026-10-21 09:55
Smarkets◎4.70I 21.28%NM 20.73%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.94%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.33%2.7%2026-10-21 09:55