Language:English
Kyoto Purple Sanga v FC Machida Zelvia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local)
Prediction 25.59%3.91fair odd
EV +2.37%
Edge +0.593%
Kelly +0.791%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.55%25.40%25.77%26.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.673.704.0029.85%27.24%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Machida Zelvia (Visit)
Prediction 49.07%2.04fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -4.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.81%49.25%48.85%50.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.871.881.9557.47%53.47%53.19%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.34%3.95fair odd
EV +0.597%
Edge +0.150%
Kelly +0.201%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.97
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.93%25.34%25.38%27.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.503.9730.30%28.12%28.57%25.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local): 25.59%; FC Machida Zelvia (Visit): 49.07%; Draw: 25.34%. For Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.37%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV +2.37%E +0.593%K +0.791%G +0.019% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.73%EV -7.75%E -4.12%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -4.98%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-05 04:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -0.187%E -0.048%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -9.23%E -4.99%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -6.24%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 04:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -0.187%E -0.048%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -9.23%E -4.99%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -6.24%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 07:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -0.187%E -0.048%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -10.21%E -5.58%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.24%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 04:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -0.187%E -0.048%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -10.21%E -5.58%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -11.31%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 14:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -2.75%E -0.723%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -5.30%E -2.75%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -12.58%E -3.65%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -2.75%E -0.723%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -5.30%E -2.75%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -12.58%E -3.65%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -2.75%E -0.723%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.90%EV -7.26%E -3.84%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -12.58%E -3.65%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -2.75%E -0.723%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.90%EV -7.26%E -3.84%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -12.58%E -3.65%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -2.75%E -0.723%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.07%EV -10.21%E -5.58%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -10.05%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-05 04:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -2.75%E -0.723%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -11.68%E -6.49%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -8.78%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-05 04:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -8.24%E -4.41%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -11.31%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 10:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.55%EV -7.26%E -3.84%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 12:41 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -7.75%E -4.12%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -7.75%E -4.12%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -7.75%E -4.12%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -7.75%E -4.12%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -7.75%E -4.12%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -7.75%E -4.12%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -5.31%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -8.24%E -4.41%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -3.71%E -0.976%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 04:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -5.31%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -8.24%E -4.41%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -5.31%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -8.24%E -4.41%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.81%EV -5.82%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -7.26%E -3.84%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 23.93%EV +0.597%E +0.150%K +0.201%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 11:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -6.58%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.73%EV -7.75%E -4.12%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -11.31%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-05 08:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -6.58%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.73%EV -7.75%E -4.12%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -11.31%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-05 08:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.29%EV -7.10%E -1.96%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.93%EV -4.32%E -2.21%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -2.44%E -0.635%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-05 03:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -7.86%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -6.77%E -3.56%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -1.18%E -0.302%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 00:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -7.86%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -6.77%E -3.56%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -1.18%E -0.302%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 00:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -7.86%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -6.77%E -3.56%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -8.78%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 10:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -9.14%E -2.58%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -8.24%E -4.41%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -3.71%E -0.976%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-03 20:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.27%EV -9.40%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.94%EV -6.77%E -3.56%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -4.98%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 03:13 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.43%EV -7.26%E -3.84%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -8.78%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 04:51 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.28%E -3.29%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.31%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-05 08:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.28%E -3.29%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.31%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-05 08:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.28%E -3.29%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.31%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-05 08:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.28%E -3.29%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.31%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-05 08:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.75%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 49.78%EV -14.62%E -8.40%K -19.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.47%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-10-05 08:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.63%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.25%EV -14.13%E -8.08%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -16.38%E -4.96%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-10-05 05:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.47I 28.82%NM 25.30%EV -11.19%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.04%EV -12.17%E -6.80%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 25.67%EV -13.34%E -3.90%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-05 08:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -11.70%E -3.39%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.74%EV -9.72%E -5.28%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -10.05%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 08:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.32%EV -8.24%E -4.41%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -8.78%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-03 17:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -14.26%E -4.26%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.74%EV -11.68%E -6.49%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -11.31%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-10-05 08:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.96% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.03% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.01% | 4.1% | 2026-10-05 13:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.91% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 47.77% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.31% | 16.9% | 2026-10-05 08:45 |