The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 10:03 UTC

Final: Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 Vissel Kobe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kawasaki Frontale (Local)

Prediction 30.63%3.26fair odd
EV +4.14%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.73%
Growth +0.072%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.94%30.76%30.52%33.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.972.903.4036.36%33.66%34.48%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vissel Kobe (Visit)

Prediction 43.79%2.28fair odd
EV +2.90%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +2.15%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.28%43.56%43.89%45.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.142.142.3551.28%46.78%46.73%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.58%3.91fair odd
EV -0.744%
Edge -0.192%
Kelly -0.258%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.65%25.69%25.60%27.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.503.503.8831.25%28.54%28.57%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kawasaki Frontale (Local): 30.63%; Vissel Kobe (Visit): 43.79%; Draw: 25.58%. For Kawasaki Frontale (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.94%EV +4.14%E +1.22%K +1.73%G +0.072%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.23%EV -8.05%E -3.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.83%EV -9.44%E -2.67%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 09:55
Pinnacle🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.25%EV -1.98%E -0.619%K -0.901%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.81%EV -5.42%E -2.51%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.95%EV -0.744%E -0.192%K -0.258%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-21 09:59
LowVig.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.84%EV -1.98%E -0.619%K -0.901%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.04%EV -7.17%E -3.38%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.13%EV -2.79%E -0.734%K -0.997%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-21 10:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.84%EV -1.98%E -0.619%K -0.901%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.04%EV -7.17%E -3.38%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.13%EV -2.79%E -0.734%K -0.997%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-21 09:59
BetAnything🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.84%EV -1.98%E -0.619%K -0.901%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.04%EV -7.17%E -3.38%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.13%EV -2.79%E -0.734%K -0.997%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-21 09:59
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -1.98%E -0.619%K -0.901%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.05%E -3.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-21 10:00
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -5.86%E -2.72%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.35%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 09:49
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -5.86%E -2.72%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.35%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 09:50
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -8.05%E -3.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.91%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-21 09:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -12.42%E -6.21%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -5.35%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-21 09:40
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -6.58%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.86%E -2.72%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.63%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-21 09:59
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.58%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -5.86%E -2.72%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.91%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 09:55
picklebet_au🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.31%EV -6.58%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -8.05%E -3.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -7.91%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 10:00
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.61%EV -6.88%E -2.26%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.69%EV -6.73%E -3.16%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.70%EV -7.40%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-21 09:59
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.73%EV -4.98%E -2.29%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV -1.51%E -0.393%K -0.530%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 09:59
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.05%E -3.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.91%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-21 09:45
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.86%E -2.72%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-21 10:00
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.05%E -3.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-21 10:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.23%E -4.99%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-21 10:00
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.23%E -4.99%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-21 09:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.23%E -4.99%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-21 09:55
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.23%E -4.99%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-21 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -9.64%E -3.27%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -0.163%E -0.072%K -0.128%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-21 09:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -9.64%E -3.27%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -0.163%E -0.072%K -0.128%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-21 09:50
Bet Right🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.12%EV -9.64%E -3.27%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.72%EV -8.05%E -3.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -6.63%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -1.48%E -0.656%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 09:50
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -2.35%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -14.30%E -4.27%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-21 09:50
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -2.35%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -14.30%E -4.27%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-21 09:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -2.35%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -14.30%E -4.27%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-21 09:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -2.35%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -14.30%E -4.27%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-21 09:50
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -2.35%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -14.30%E -4.27%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-21 09:50
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -2.35%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -14.30%E -4.27%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-21 09:50
betPARX🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -2.35%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -14.30%E -4.27%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-21 09:50
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -5.86%E -2.72%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-21 09:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -5.86%E -2.72%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-21 09:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -5.86%E -2.72%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-21 09:45
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.79%EV -4.54%E -2.08%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:40
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.79%EV -4.54%E -2.08%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.08%EV -10.23%E -4.99%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.76%EV -6.63%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-21 10:00
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -8.05%E -3.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-21 09:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -8.05%E -3.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-21 09:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -10.23%E -4.99%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -7.91%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-21 09:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -11.78%E -4.09%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -3.67%E -1.67%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -14.30%E -4.27%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-21 09:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -11.78%E -4.09%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -3.67%E -1.67%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -14.30%E -4.27%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-21 09:50
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.65%EV -11.78%E -4.09%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -12.42%E -6.21%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.22%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-21 10:00
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -14.23%E -5.08%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -8.05%E -3.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-21 09:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.41%EV -14.23%E -5.08%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.10%EV -6.29%E -2.94%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.49%EV -18.14%E -5.67%K -8.25%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-21 09:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.36%EV -14.23%E -5.08%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.90%EV -12.42%E -6.21%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -9.19%E -2.59%K -3.60%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-21 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.31%EV -14.23%E -5.08%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.36%EV -9.36%E -4.52%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.33%EV -14.81%E -4.45%K -6.36%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-21 09:37
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.45%EV -14.23%E -5.08%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 43.72%EV -14.61%E -7.49%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.83%EV -15.58%E -4.72%K -6.77%G +0.000%17.3%2026-10-21 09:39
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -15.77%E -5.73%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV +2.90%E +1.23%K +2.15%G +0.062%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -13.02%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 09:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.57%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%0.7%2026-10-21 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.57%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%0.7%2026-10-21 09:55
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-10-21 10:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.62%1.4%2026-10-21 10:00
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.17%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%2.0%2026-10-21 09:45
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.13%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.11%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.77%2.1%2026-10-21 10:00