The School of Odds
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Kawasaki Frontale v Urawa Red Diamonds

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 07:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kawasaki Frontale (Local)

Prediction 35.91%2.78fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.38%36.01%35.92%37.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.522.502.6641.67%39.62%40.00%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit)

Prediction 37.12%2.69fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.904%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.11%37.11%37.15%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.472.482.6342.55%40.54%40.32%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.97%3.71fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -0.810%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.53%26.88%26.93%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.383.403.6030.77%29.59%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kawasaki Frontale (Local): 35.91%; Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit): 37.12%; Draw: 26.97%. For Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.63, with an expected value of -2.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.36%EV -4.47%E -1.68%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.77%EV -2.38%E -0.904%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.87%EV -2.92%E -0.810%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 06:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.59%EV -5.91%E -2.25%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.15%EV -6.83%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.26%EV -7.77%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 06:54
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.62%E -2.55%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.35%E -2.10%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.61%E -1.60%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 06:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.62%E -2.55%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -6.96%E -2.02%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 05:40
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -6.62%E -2.55%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.31%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-05 06:54
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.73%EV -7.34%E -2.85%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.17%EV -7.95%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.31%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 05:39
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.73%EV -7.34%E -2.85%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.17%EV -7.95%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.31%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 05:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.38%EV -7.70%E -3.00%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -10.92%E -4.55%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -8.31%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-05 06:33
BetAnything🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -8.42%E -3.30%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.35%E -2.10%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.61%E -1.60%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 06:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.22%E -4.09%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -10.92%E -4.55%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -5.61%E -1.60%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-05 05:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.14%EV -10.22%E -4.09%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.88%EV -9.06%E -3.70%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.97%EV -9.66%E -2.88%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-05 06:54
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.22%E -4.09%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -12.35%E -3.80%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 06:30
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.22%E -4.09%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -12.35%E -3.80%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 06:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.22%E -4.09%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -12.35%E -3.80%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 06:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.22%E -4.09%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -12.35%E -3.80%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 06:30
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -12.01%E -4.90%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -10.92%E -4.55%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -11.01%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-05 05:20
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -12.01%E -4.90%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -10.92%E -4.55%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -11.01%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-05 05:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -12.01%E -4.90%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -10.92%E -4.55%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -11.01%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-05 05:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -12.01%E -4.90%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -10.92%E -4.55%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -11.01%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-05 05:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.05%EV -12.01%E -4.90%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.58%EV -12.77%E -5.43%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -9.66%E -2.88%K -4.11%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-05 05:40
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -13.81%E -5.75%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -10.92%E -4.55%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -5.61%E -1.60%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-05 06:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 35.93%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.18%3.1%2026-04-05 06:35