The School of Odds
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Kawasaki Frontale v Tokyo Verdy

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 08:00 UTC

Final: Kawasaki Frontale 1–0 Tokyo Verdy

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kawasaki Frontale (Local)

Prediction 45.24%2.21fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.42%45.20%45.20%46.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.032.052.1351.55%49.17%48.78%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Verdy (Visit)

Prediction 26.34%3.80fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -0.760%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.78%26.38%26.37%26.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.503.6930.77%28.79%28.57%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.42%3.52fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -0.989%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.62%28.42%28.43%29.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.213.203.4032.26%31.16%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kawasaki Frontale (Local): 45.24%; Tokyo Verdy (Visit): 26.34%; Draw: 28.42%. For Tokyo Verdy (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.69, with an expected value of -2.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.38%EV -3.65%E -1.71%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.19%EV -2.80%E -0.760%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -3.36%E -0.989%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-06 07:55
BetAnything🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.10%EV -4.55%E -2.16%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -3.86%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 07:54
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.24%EV -5.00%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -5.17%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -4.78%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 07:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -6.36%E -3.07%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -6.75%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.61%EV -7.34%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 07:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.26%E -3.54%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.17%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -7.63%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 07:34
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.26%E -3.54%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.81%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-06 07:34
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.26%E -3.54%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -6.49%E -1.83%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -7.63%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-06 07:44
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.26%E -3.54%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.81%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.63%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-06 07:24
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.26%E -3.54%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -10.44%E -3.07%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.05%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 07:39
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.26%E -3.54%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.81%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.89%E -3.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-06 07:54
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.26%E -3.54%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.81%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.89%E -3.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-06 07:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.26%E -3.54%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.81%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.89%E -3.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-06 07:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.26%E -3.54%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.81%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.89%E -3.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-06 07:54
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -8.62%E -4.27%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.81%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -4.78%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-04 02:21
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -9.53%E -4.76%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.81%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -7.63%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 07:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.53%E -4.76%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -10.44%E -3.07%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-06 07:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -9.53%E -4.76%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.81%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.05%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-06 07:34
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.53%E -4.76%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.08%E -3.96%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.89%E -3.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-06 07:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.53%E -4.76%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.08%E -3.96%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.89%E -3.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-06 07:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.53%E -4.76%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.08%E -3.96%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.89%E -3.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-06 07:35
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.53%E -4.76%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.08%E -3.96%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.89%E -3.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-06 07:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.03%EV -11.34%E -5.78%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -7.81%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -9.05%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-06 07:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.19%EV -12.24%E -6.31%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -14.39%E -4.43%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.83%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-06 07:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-05-06 07:55