Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kawasaki Frontale v Kyoto Purple Sanga

Inicio: 2026-08-15 10:00 UTC

Final: Kawasaki Frontale 2–2 Kyoto Purple Sanga

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kawasaki Frontale (Local)

Predicción 42.06%2.38momio equitativo
EV -3.26%
Ventaja -1.42%
Kelly -2.51%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.69%42.04%41.96%43.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.192.202.3047.62%45.57%45.45%43.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visitante)

Predicción 30.44%3.29momio equitativo
EV +0.139%
Ventaja +0.042%
Kelly +0.060%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.87%30.53%30.45%31.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.023.053.2935.09%33.13%32.79%30.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.50%3.64momio equitativo
EV -0.989%
Ventaja -0.275%
Kelly -0.380%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.38%27.43%27.59%28.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.333.303.6031.25%30.02%30.30%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Kawasaki Frontale (Local): 42.06%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visitante): 30.44%; Empate: 27.50%. Para Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.285. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.290, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.139%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.37%EV -7.89%E -3.60%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.87%EV +0.139%E +0.042%K +0.060%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.77%EV -5.94%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 09:55
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.64%EV -4.52%E -1.99%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.25%EV -2.60%E -0.813%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.11%EV -1.81%E -0.508%K -0.706%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 09:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.52%EV -3.26%E -1.42%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.64%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.68%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 09:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.52%EV -3.26%E -1.42%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.64%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.68%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 09:54
BetAnything🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.52%EV -3.26%E -1.42%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.64%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.68%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 09:54
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.37%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.64%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 09:43
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.64%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 09:38
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.64%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 09:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.64%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 08:59
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -5.37%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 09:34
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -5.37%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 09:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.61%EV -5.79%E -2.58%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.86%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 09:55
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:10
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:09
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:09
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:09
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:09
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:10
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.10%EV -8.31%E -3.81%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 09:35
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.10%EV -8.31%E -3.81%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 09:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 42.67%EV -10.41%E -4.89%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.54%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 09:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.01%EV -11.67%E -5.56%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -7.17%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 09:34
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -3.26%E -1.42%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -8.69%E -2.90%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -0.989%E -0.275%K -0.380%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 09:50
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.69%E -2.90%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 09:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.69%E -2.90%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 09:35
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.69%E -2.90%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.61%E -3.27%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 09:54
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.69%E -2.90%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.61%E -3.27%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 09:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.69%E -2.90%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.61%E -3.27%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 09:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.69%E -2.90%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.61%E -3.27%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 09:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%EV -8.31%E -3.81%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -8.69%E -2.90%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -10.61%E -3.27%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 09:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%EV -8.31%E -3.81%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -8.69%E -2.90%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -10.61%E -3.27%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 09:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%EV -8.31%E -3.81%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -8.69%E -2.90%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -10.61%E -3.27%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 09:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -11.67%E -5.56%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -10.21%E -3.46%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 09:34
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -11.73%E -4.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 09:10
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -5.37%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.73%E -4.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 09:39
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.73%E -4.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 09:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.73%E -4.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 09:49
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -11.67%E -5.56%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -11.73%E -4.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 07:14
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.73%E -4.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -11.99%E -3.75%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 09:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.73%E -4.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -11.99%E -3.75%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 09:24
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.73%E -4.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -11.99%E -3.75%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 09:24
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.73%E -4.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -11.99%E -3.75%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 09:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.73%E -4.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -11.99%E -3.75%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 09:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.90%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.61%EV -13.25%E -4.65%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-15 09:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.10%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-08-15 09:55
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-08-15 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.31%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%1.0%2026-08-15 09:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.31%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%1.0%2026-08-15 09:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.31%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%1.0%2026-08-15 09:55
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.49%1.9%2026-08-15 09:45