The School of Odds
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Kawasaki Frontale v JEF United Chiba

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kawasaki Frontale (Local)

Prediction 53.01%1.89fair odd
EV -6.17%
Edge -3.49%
Kelly -8.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.99%52.95%53.06%54.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.731.751.7760.98%57.83%57.14%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JEF United Chiba (Visit)

Prediction 22.49%4.45fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.286%
Kelly -0.370%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.62%22.55%22.37%23.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.034.004.3927.03%24.80%25.00%22.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.50%4.08fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -0.948%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.99%24.50%24.56%25.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.713.703.9328.17%26.99%27.03%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kawasaki Frontale (Local): 53.01%; JEF United Chiba (Visit): 22.49%; Draw: 24.50%. For JEF United Chiba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.39, with an expected value of -1.25%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.87%EV -6.17%E -3.49%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -5.69%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 06:04
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.23%EV -7.23%E -4.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.62%EV -1.25%E -0.286%K -0.370%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.15%EV -3.73%E -0.948%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 07:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.23%E -4.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -5.53%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.91%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-22 06:05
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -7.23%E -4.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.33%EV -6.65%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -8.14%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 14:10
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -7.23%E -4.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.33%EV -6.65%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -8.14%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 14:10
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.23%E -4.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -11.81%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 09:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.23%E -4.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -11.81%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 09:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.23%E -4.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -11.81%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 09:15
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.23%E -4.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -11.81%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 09:20
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.29%E -4.79%K -11.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -8.14%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-18 08:35
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -8.29%E -4.79%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -15.65%E -4.17%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -8.14%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 22:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.36%EV -9.88%E -5.81%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -9.36%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 06:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.88%E -5.81%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -12.28%E -3.15%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -9.36%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 05:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.48%EV -11.47%E -6.87%K -17.13%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.05%EV -8.90%E -2.20%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.47%EV -10.59%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 06:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.49%EV -13.06%E -7.97%K -20.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.26%EV -16.78%E -4.53%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.25%EV -13.04%E -3.67%K -5.11%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-23 05:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%8.1%2026-04-24 00:30