The School of Odds
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Kawasaki Frontale v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 10:00 UTC

Final: Kawasaki Frontale 0–1 Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kawasaki Frontale (Local)

Prediction 30.77%3.25fair odd
EV -0.920%
Edge -0.286%
Kelly -0.414%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%30.69%30.83%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.982.983.2236.36%33.54%33.56%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit)

Prediction 43.68%2.29fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -3.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.45%43.79%43.59%45.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.102.2050.00%47.83%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.55%3.91fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%25.52%25.59%26.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.573.603.7229.41%28.03%27.78%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kawasaki Frontale (Local): 30.77%; Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit): 43.68%; Draw: 25.55%. For Kawasaki Frontale (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.25. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.22, with an expected value of -0.920%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 29.83%EV -0.920%E -0.286%K -0.414%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.27%EV -5.22%E -2.40%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.89%EV -5.21%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-06 09:40
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -1.54%E -0.480%K -0.698%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.46%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-06 09:39
BetAnything🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -3.07%E -0.976%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -8.27%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.46%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-06 09:49
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -4.61%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -12.64%E -6.32%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -8.02%E -2.23%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-06 09:39
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.69%EV -6.46%E -2.12%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.22%EV -7.84%E -3.71%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.08%EV -4.95%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-06 09:49
Betclic (FR)🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 29.99%EV -6.77%E -2.23%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 44.77%EV -11.33%E -5.58%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -8.02%E -2.23%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-06 09:38
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -7.69%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.46%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-06 09:49
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.69%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -8.02%E -2.23%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-06 09:49
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -7.69%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.27%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.02%E -2.23%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-06 08:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -7.69%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -12.64%E -6.32%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-06 09:40
Betsson🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 30.93%EV -8.30%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.47%EV -7.40%E -3.49%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.02%E -2.23%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-06 09:49
NordicBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 30.93%EV -8.30%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.47%EV -7.40%E -3.49%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.02%E -2.23%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-06 09:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -9.23%E -3.13%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.46%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -5.46%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-06 09:39
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -10.77%E -3.71%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-06 09:49
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -10.77%E -3.71%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-06 09:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -10.77%E -3.71%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-06 09:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -10.77%E -3.71%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-06 09:49
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.77%E -3.71%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.13%E -3.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-06 09:50
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.77%E -3.71%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.13%E -3.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-06 09:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.77%E -3.71%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.13%E -3.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-06 09:49
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.77%E -3.71%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.13%E -3.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-06 09:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.75%EV -15.38%E -5.59%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -12.64%E -6.32%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.59%EV -9.30%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%14.5%2026-06-06 09:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.58%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.0%2026-06-06 09:49