The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kawasaki Frontale v Fagiano Okayama

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 07:03 UTC

Final: Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 Fagiano Okayama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kawasaki Frontale (Local)

Prediction 50.24%1.99fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -5.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.88%50.30%50.27%52.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.841.841.9057.14%54.46%54.35%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fagiano Okayama (Visit)

Prediction 24.73%4.04fair odd
EV +0.645%
Edge +0.158%
Kelly +0.210%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.30%24.70%24.72%25.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.703.654.0728.57%27.02%27.40%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.04%3.99fair odd
EV +0.396%
Edge +0.099%
Kelly +0.132%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.05%24.99%25.01%25.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.653.604.0129.41%27.42%27.78%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kawasaki Frontale (Local): 50.24%; Fagiano Okayama (Visit): 24.73%; Draw: 25.04%. For Fagiano Okayama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.645%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -8.07%E -4.41%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.30%EV +0.645%E +0.158%K +0.210%G +0.001%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.89%EV -4.61%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 06:59
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.29%EV -5.56%E -2.96%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.66%EV -3.31%E -0.847%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.05%EV +0.396%E +0.099%K +0.132%G +0.001%3.7%2026-10-25 06:51
LowVig.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.62%EV -5.06%E -2.67%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.53%EV -3.56%E -0.913%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.85%EV -3.61%E -0.938%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-25 07:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.62%EV -5.06%E -2.67%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.53%EV -3.56%E -0.913%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.85%EV -3.61%E -0.938%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-25 07:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -3.56%E -0.913%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 06:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -3.56%E -0.913%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 06:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.04%EV -12.09%E -6.91%K -16.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -3.56%E -0.913%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.37%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-25 06:51
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.75%EV -5.56%E -2.96%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -4.80%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.47%EV -2.36%E -0.605%K -0.813%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-25 07:00
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.55%E -2.40%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.67%EV -4.80%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.33%EV -6.11%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 06:59
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -8.07%E -4.41%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.03%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.86%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 06:50
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -6.03%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.37%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-25 06:51
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.71%EV -6.06%E -3.24%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.03%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 06:51
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.39%EV -8.57%E -4.71%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -6.03%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 06:51
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.39%EV -8.57%E -4.71%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -6.03%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 06:51
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.93%EV -5.56%E -2.96%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.11%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 06:58
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.07%EV -6.06%E -3.24%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.11%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-25 06:51
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.77%EV -5.56%E -2.96%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.37%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 07:00
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -8.07%E -4.41%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -4.86%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 07:00
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -8.07%E -4.41%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -7.37%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 06:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.87%EV -7.52%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.87%EV -6.36%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 07:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.29%EV -5.06%E -2.67%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -8.50%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -8.62%E -2.36%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 06:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.29%EV -5.06%E -2.67%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -8.50%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -8.62%E -2.36%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 06:00
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -6.06%E -3.24%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -8.50%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -8.62%E -2.36%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 06:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -6.06%E -3.24%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -8.50%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -8.62%E -2.36%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 06:01
picklebet_au🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.83%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -7.37%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 07:00
Unibet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.35%EV -6.56%E -3.53%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 06:00
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.80%EV -7.57%E -4.11%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -8.62%E -2.36%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 06:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 06:00
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 06:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 06:01
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 06:01
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 06:00
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 06:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -6.11%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 06:50
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 06:59
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 06:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.45%EV -7.57%E -4.11%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 06:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.45%EV -7.57%E -4.11%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 06:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -8.57%E -4.71%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-25 06:59
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 06:51
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 06:51
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.28%EV -10.58%E -5.94%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-25 07:00
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 06:51
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 06:51
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 06:51
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 06:51
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.27%EV -10.58%E -5.94%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -12.21%E -3.44%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -8.62%E -2.36%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-25 06:51
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -8.07%E -4.41%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -13.45%E -3.84%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-25 06:29
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -9.58%E -5.32%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -13.45%E -3.84%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 06:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.39%EV -10.58%E -5.94%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -13.45%E -3.84%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.48%EV -13.62%E -3.95%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-25 06:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.64%EV -12.09%E -6.91%K -16.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -13.45%E -3.84%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -14.88%E -4.38%K -6.20%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-25 06:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-10-25 06:51
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%1.3%2026-10-25 07:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%1.3%2026-10-25 07:00
Matchbook◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%1.3%2026-10-25 07:00
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-10-25 06:45
Smarkets◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.16%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.08%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.76%2.2%2026-10-25 07:00