The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kashiwa Reysol v Vissel Kobe

2026-10-09 10:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kashiwa Reysol (Local)

Prediction 44.23%2.26fair odd
EV -6.24%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -5.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.90%44.33%44.23%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.062.1251.28%49.00%48.43%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vissel Kobe (Visit)

Prediction 28.41%3.52fair odd
EV -6.23%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -2.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.04%28.44%28.41%28.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.253.3033.33%31.53%30.82%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.36%3.66fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.421%
Kelly -0.583%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.88%27.24%27.36%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.373.303.6031.25%29.67%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kashiwa Reysol (Local): 44.23%; Vissel Kobe (Visit): 28.41%; Draw: 27.36%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -1.52%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.82%EV -6.24%E -2.94%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.79%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -1.52%E -0.421%K -0.583%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 11:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.90%EV -6.24%E -2.94%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.73%EV -7.94%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-02 11:49
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -8.00%E -3.85%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.52%E -0.421%K -0.583%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-02 11:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -8.00%E -3.85%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-02 11:25
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -8.00%E -3.85%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-02 11:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -9.33%E -4.55%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -1.52%E -0.421%K -0.583%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 11:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.03%EV -11.54%E -5.77%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.87%EV -13.33%E -4.37%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.10%EV -11.09%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-02 11:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.54%EV -12.87%E -6.53%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.04%EV -11.06%E -3.53%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.42%EV -12.46%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-02 12:38
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.13%EV -13.31%E -6.79%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.83%EV -14.76%E -4.92%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.03%EV -12.46%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-02 11:25
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.44%EV -13.75%E -7.05%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.89%EV -14.76%E -4.92%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.67%EV -11.09%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-02 11:28
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 43.28%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.85%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.87%11.1%2026-10-02 12:05