The School of Odds
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Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa Red Diamonds

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 10:00 UTC

Final: Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 Urawa Red Diamonds

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kashiwa Reysol (Local)

Prediction 43.46%2.30fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.788%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.19%43.48%43.46%44.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.132.2650.00%47.08%46.95%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit)

Prediction 29.14%3.43fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -0.802%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.13%29.07%29.09%29.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.153.103.3433.90%31.73%32.26%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.40%3.65fair odd
EV -0.804%
Edge -0.222%
Kelly -0.307%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.71%27.45%27.45%28.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.303.303.6232.26%30.27%30.30%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kashiwa Reysol (Local): 43.46%; Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit): 29.14%; Draw: 27.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.62, with an expected value of -0.804%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.19%EV -1.78%E -0.788%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -5.30%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -8.20%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-06 09:50
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -5.26%E -2.41%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.95%EV -2.68%E -0.802%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.71%EV -0.804%E -0.222%K -0.307%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-06 09:55
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -5.26%E -2.41%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.67%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -8.20%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 08:19
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -6.56%E -3.05%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.30%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-06 09:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.56%E -3.05%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.76%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 09:54
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -6.56%E -3.05%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -3.84%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -10.94%E -3.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-06 09:35
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.56%E -3.05%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.67%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 09:49
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.56%E -3.05%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.67%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 09:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.56%E -3.05%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.67%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 09:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.56%E -3.05%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.67%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 09:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.59%EV -7.00%E -3.27%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.97%EV -6.17%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 09:50
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.37%EV -7.87%E -3.71%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -8.21%E -2.61%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -8.20%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-06 09:54
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.73%E -4.16%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -5.30%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -8.73%E -4.16%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -11.13%E -3.65%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-06 09:55
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.73%E -4.16%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.67%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-06 09:50
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.73%E -4.16%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.67%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -15.05%E -4.86%K -7.17%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-06 09:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.73%E -4.16%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.67%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -15.05%E -4.86%K -7.17%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-06 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.73%E -4.16%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.67%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -15.05%E -4.86%K -7.17%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-06 09:49
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.73%E -4.16%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.67%E -3.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -15.05%E -4.86%K -7.17%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-06 09:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.33%EV -10.91%E -5.32%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.13%EV -5.88%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.54%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 09:38
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -10.91%E -5.32%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64%EV -8.21%E -2.61%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-06 09:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.60%EV -13.08%E -6.54%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.56%EV -14.04%E -4.76%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.83%EV -10.94%E -3.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-06 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-05-06 09:55