The School of Odds
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Kashima Antlers v Mito HollyHock

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 07:00 UTC

Final: Kashima Antlers 3–0 Mito HollyHock

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kashima Antlers (Local)

Prediction 55.30%1.81fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -5.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.90%55.22%55.41%56.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.671.7362.50%59.96%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mito HollyHock (Visit)

Prediction 18.48%5.41fair odd
EV -0.182%
Edge -0.034%
Kelly -0.041%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.67%18.52%18.51%19.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.925.005.4022.22%20.32%20.00%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.21%3.82fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.32%26.26%26.08%27.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.453.6530.30%28.69%28.99%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kashima Antlers (Local): 55.30%; Mito HollyHock (Visit): 18.48%; Draw: 26.21%. For Mito HollyHock (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.40, with an expected value of -0.182%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.71%EV -4.32%E -2.50%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.88%EV -0.367%E -0.068%K -0.084%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -4.33%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-06 06:55
BetAnything🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.46%EV -4.88%E -2.84%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.67%EV -0.182%E -0.034%K -0.041%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -6.95%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-06 06:54
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -5.43%E -3.18%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -2.96%E -0.563%K -0.695%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.95%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 06:55
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -5.98%E -3.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.88%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 06:54
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -5.98%E -3.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -14.97%E -3.25%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -8.26%E -2.36%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 06:39
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.33%EV -6.54%E -3.87%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-06 06:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.09%E -4.22%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.46%EV -6.65%E -1.32%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 06:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -7.64%E -4.58%K -11.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-06 06:54
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.64%E -4.58%K -11.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.88%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 06:35
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.64%E -4.58%K -11.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.88%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 06:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.64%E -4.58%K -11.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.88%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 06:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.64%E -4.58%K -11.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.88%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 06:35
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -7.64%E -4.58%K -11.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -13.50%E -4.09%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-06 06:53
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.02%EV -8.75%E -5.30%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.95%EV -4.80%E -0.933%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -6.95%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 06:55
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.01%EV -8.75%E -5.30%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.67%EV -8.50%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -4.33%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-05 05:19
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -8.75%E -5.30%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.97%E -3.25%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.88%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-06 06:30
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -8.75%E -5.30%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.97%E -3.25%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.88%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-06 06:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -8.75%E -5.30%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.97%E -3.25%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.88%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-06 06:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -8.75%E -5.30%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.97%E -3.25%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.88%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-06 06:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.64%EV -9.30%E -5.67%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -11.27%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-06 06:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.44%EV -9.30%E -5.67%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -11.27%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -6.95%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 06:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.40%EV -9.85%E -6.05%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.43%EV -9.42%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -9.57%E -2.77%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-06 06:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.97%EV -11.51%E -7.20%K -19.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.54%EV -16.82%E -3.74%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.49%EV -9.57%E -2.77%K -3.91%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-06 06:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 56.94%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.44%2.1%2026-05-06 06:35