The School of Odds
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Kashima Antlers v JEF United Chiba

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kashima Antlers (Local)

Prediction 60.89%1.64fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -6.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.23%60.79%60.74%62.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.481.5869.44%67.24%67.57%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JEF United Chiba (Visit)

Prediction 16.18%6.18fair odd
EV +1.75%
Edge +0.277%
Kelly +0.330%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 6.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.00%16.25%16.29%17.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.695.726.2919.61%17.59%17.47%15.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.94%4.36fair odd
EV +0.015%
Edge +0.003%
Kelly +0.004%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.10%22.97%22.97%23.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.984.004.3626.67%25.09%25.00%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kashima Antlers (Local): 60.89%; JEF United Chiba (Visit): 16.18%; Draw: 22.94%. For JEF United Chiba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.29, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.58%EV -6.24%E -4.05%K -11.55%G +0.000%6.29I 15.90%NM 15.32%EV +1.75%E +0.277%K +0.330%G +0.006%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.10%EV +0.015%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-22 05:49
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -6.85%E -4.47%K -12.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -2.95%E -0.491%K -0.589%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -3.66%E -0.870%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 05:09
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -12.33%E -8.56%K -28.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -2.95%E -0.491%K -0.589%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -8.24%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 05:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -12.33%E -8.56%K -28.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -2.95%E -0.491%K -0.589%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -8.24%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 05:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -12.33%E -8.56%K -28.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -2.95%E -0.491%K -0.589%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -8.24%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 05:55
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -12.33%E -8.56%K -28.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -2.95%E -0.491%K -0.589%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -8.24%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 05:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.50%EV -6.24%E -4.05%K -11.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.20%EV -6.99%E -1.22%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.24%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 05:10
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.90%EV -7.45%E -4.90%K -14.34%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.24%EV -7.80%E -1.37%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.86%EV -7.10%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 05:10
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.97%EV -8.67%E -5.78%K -17.34%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.36%EV -11.03%E -2.01%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -12.83%E -3.38%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-22 05:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.84%EV -8.67%E -5.78%K -17.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.90%EV -12.65%E -2.34%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -5.95%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 05:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.53%EV -11.72%E -8.08%K -26.04%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.25%EV -12.65%E -2.34%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.22%EV -13.29%E -3.52%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-22 05:38
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.40%EV -12.33%E -8.56%K -28.01%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.41%EV -14.27%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.19%EV -13.98%E -3.73%K -5.08%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-22 05:40
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.23%EV -3.80%E -2.41%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.87%EV -16.69%E -3.24%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -11.68%E -3.03%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 20:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.22%EV -11.11%E -7.61%K -24.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.24%EV -17.50%E -3.43%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.54%EV -10.54%E -2.70%K -3.63%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-22 05:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.10%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.57%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%2.9%2026-03-22 04:54