The School of Odds
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JEF United Chiba v Tokyo Verdy

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JEF United Chiba (Local)

Prediction 32.36%3.09fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.424%
Kelly -0.631%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.65%32.35%32.42%33.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.852.833.0537.74%35.14%35.27%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Verdy (Visit)

Prediction 36.78%2.72fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.30%36.82%36.78%37.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.492.502.6242.55%40.10%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.86%3.24fair odd
EV -4.64%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.69%30.82%30.80%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.902.972.983.0934.48%33.66%33.61%32.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JEF United Chiba (Local): 32.36%; Tokyo Verdy (Visit): 36.78%; Draw: 30.86%. For JEF United Chiba (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -1.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.73%EV -1.29%E -0.424%K -0.631%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.94%EV -3.64%E -1.39%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.32%EV -4.64%E -1.50%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 03:55
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -4.53%E -1.54%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.03%EV -6.22%E -2.44%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -5.88%E -1.93%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 03:55
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.15%E -2.12%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 03:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.15%E -2.12%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 03:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.15%E -2.12%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 03:54
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.15%E -2.12%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 03:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -7.77%E -2.73%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -6.22%E -2.44%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.88%E -1.93%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 03:55
Betsson🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.69%EV -8.74%E -3.10%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.58%EV -7.32%E -2.90%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -7.42%E -2.47%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 03:54
NordicBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.69%EV -8.74%E -3.10%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.58%EV -7.32%E -2.90%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -7.42%E -2.47%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 03:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.38%E -3.35%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -9.89%E -4.04%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.42%E -2.47%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 03:53
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -9.38%E -3.35%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 03:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -11.00%E -4.00%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -9.89%E -4.04%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -5.88%E -1.93%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 03:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -11.00%E -4.00%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -11.73%E -4.89%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-04 03:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.05%EV -14.24%E -5.37%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.27%EV -13.57%E -5.78%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -8.96%E -3.04%K -4.60%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-04 03:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.07%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.07%3.2%2026-04-04 03:55