The School of Odds
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JEF United Chiba v Kashiwa Reysol

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JEF United Chiba (Local)

Prediction 20.19%4.95fair odd
EV -0.673%
Edge -0.137%
Kelly -0.172%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.60%20.24%20.30%21.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.494.534.9224.39%22.29%22.10%20.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kashiwa Reysol (Visit)

Prediction 54.72%1.83fair odd
EV -4.79%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -6.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.01%54.65%54.61%55.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.691.7462.50%59.84%59.35%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.09%3.98fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -0.813%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.21%25.10%25.09%25.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.653.703.8628.99%27.40%27.03%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JEF United Chiba (Local): 20.19%; Kashiwa Reysol (Visit): 54.72%; Draw: 25.09%. For JEF United Chiba (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.92, with an expected value of -0.673%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.92I 20.33%NM 19.60%EV -0.673%E -0.137%K -0.172%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.42%EV -4.79%E -2.75%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.98%EV -3.14%E -0.813%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-07 03:55
DraftKings🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -3.10%E -0.645%K -0.815%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.18%EV -6.43%E -3.76%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -5.90%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 03:29
Unibet (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -7.13%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.86%EV -6.98%E -4.11%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -5.90%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-02 17:09
Betsson🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.38%EV -8.14%E -1.79%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -6.98%E -4.11%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -7.15%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-02 17:15
NordicBet🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.38%EV -8.14%E -1.79%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -6.98%E -4.11%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -7.15%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-02 17:09
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -9.15%E -2.03%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.11%EV -8.62%E -5.16%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -12.17%E -3.48%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-07 03:29
Winamax (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -13.19%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.68%EV -9.17%E -5.52%K -13.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -5.90%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-07 03:09
Betclic (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.38%EV -13.19%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.43%EV -11.91%E -7.39%K -19.52%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.18%EV -12.67%E -3.64%K -5.11%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-07 03:34
Parions Sport (FR)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 20.46%EV -14.20%E -3.34%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 54.34%EV -12.45%E -7.78%K -20.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.20%EV -13.43%E -3.89%K -5.48%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-07 03:34
Winamax (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -17.23%E -4.20%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.01%EV -11.36%E -7.01%K -18.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.65%EV -10.92%E -3.07%K -4.28%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-07 03:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.