The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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JEF United Chiba v Kashima Antlers

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 05:00 UTC

Final: JEF United Chiba 0–2 Kashima Antlers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JEF United Chiba (Local)

Prediction 17.65%5.67fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.535%
Kelly -0.654%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.75%17.65%17.63%18.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.245.305.5020.83%19.08%18.87%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kashima Antlers (Visit)

Prediction 58.17%1.72fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -3.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.37%58.15%58.18%58.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.581.581.6865.79%63.13%63.29%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.18%4.14fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -0.880%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.45%24.20%24.19%25.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.793.753.9927.78%26.41%26.67%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JEF United Chiba (Local): 17.65%; Kashima Antlers (Visit): 58.17%; Draw: 24.18%. For Kashima Antlers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.68, with an expected value of -2.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -2.94%E -0.535%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.81%EV -6.34%E -3.94%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -4.48%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 04:54
Unibet (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -2.94%E -0.535%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.69%E -1.46%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 04:55
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -2.94%E -0.535%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -9.32%E -2.48%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 04:55
888sport (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -2.94%E -0.535%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -9.32%E -2.48%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 04:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -2.94%E -0.535%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -9.32%E -2.48%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 04:55
NordicBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39%EV -6.47%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.35%EV -8.09%E -5.12%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.11%E -2.13%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 04:55
Betsson🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39%EV -6.47%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.35%EV -8.09%E -5.12%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.11%E -2.13%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 04:55
Unibet (FR)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.01%EV -6.47%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.94%EV -11.00%E -7.19%K -20.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -9.32%E -2.48%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-17 04:55
Pinnacle🎯5.23I 19.12%NM 18.44%EV -7.71%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.40%EV -2.27%E -1.35%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.17%EV -3.51%E -0.880%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-17 04:46
Winamax (DE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.93%EV -10.00%E -1.96%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.62%EV -9.25%E -5.93%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -5.69%E -1.46%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 04:55
Betclic (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -10.00%E -1.96%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.58%EV -8.09%E -5.12%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -10.53%E -2.84%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 04:52
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -11.77%E -2.35%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.76%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -10.53%E -2.84%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 04:55
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -11.77%E -2.35%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -12.94%E -3.60%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 04:55
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.77%E -2.35%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -9.32%E -2.48%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 04:55
Winamax (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.33%EV -15.30%E -3.19%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 57.89%EV -11.58%E -7.62%K -22.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.78%EV -10.53%E -2.84%K -3.90%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-17 04:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.84%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49%2.1%2026-05-17 04:55