The School of Odds
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JEF United Chiba v FC Tokyo

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JEF United Chiba (Local)

Prediction 22.10%4.53fair odd
EV -0.562%
Edge -0.125%
Kelly -0.161%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.94%22.02%22.19%22.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.154.184.5025.97%24.13%23.95%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Tokyo (Visit)

Prediction 51.79%1.93fair odd
EV -5.22%
Edge -2.85%
Kelly -6.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.21%51.90%51.74%53.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.761.751.8359.17%56.82%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.11%3.83fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.414%
Kelly -0.563%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.61%26.08%26.07%26.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.483.453.7730.30%28.75%28.99%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JEF United Chiba (Local): 22.10%; FC Tokyo (Visit): 51.79%; Draw: 26.11%. For JEF United Chiba (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.50, with an expected value of -0.562%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -0.562%E -0.125%K -0.161%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -8.33%E -4.71%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -4.69%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-18 09:54
Pinnacle🎯4.48I 22.32%NM 21.57%EV -1.00%E -0.224%K -0.289%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.80%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.63%EV -1.56%E -0.414%K -0.563%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-18 09:50
Unibet (UK)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -6.09%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -5.74%E -3.15%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.00%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-18 09:39
888sport🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.36%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-18 09:54
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.36%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-18 09:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.36%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-18 09:54
888sport (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.36%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-18 09:54
NordicBet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -8.30%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-18 09:40
Betsson🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -8.30%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-18 09:39
Winamax (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.66%EV -8.85%E -5.03%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -7.31%E -2.06%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-18 09:39
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -9.36%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-18 09:54
Betclic (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.17%EV -12.72%E -3.22%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.52%EV -11.95%E -7.03%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.30%EV -13.05%E -3.92%K -5.60%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-18 09:43
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.27%EV -13.82%E -3.54%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 51.40%EV -12.47%E -7.38%K -18.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.32%EV -13.83%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-18 09:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.88%EV -14.93%E -3.88%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.21%EV -10.92%E -6.35%K -15.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.91%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-18 09:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.76I 21.01%NM 21.03%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.97%3.85I 25.97%NM 26.00%-0.1%2026-03-18 09:54