The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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JEF United Chiba v FC Machida Zelvia

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 08:00 UTC

Final: JEF United Chiba 0–2 FC Machida Zelvia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JEF United Chiba (Local)

Prediction 20.55%4.87fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.682%
Kelly -0.866%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.18%20.58%20.45%21.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.424.334.7125.00%22.64%23.09%21.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Machida Zelvia (Visit)

Prediction 52.84%1.89fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -5.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.41%52.83%52.78%53.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.751.751.8160.24%57.27%57.14%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.61%3.76fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -0.770%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.97%26.59%26.77%27.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.453.453.6830.30%28.99%28.99%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JEF United Chiba (Local): 20.55%; FC Machida Zelvia (Visit): 52.84%; Draw: 26.61%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.68, with an expected value of -2.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.71I 21.23%NM 20.48%EV -3.21%E -0.682%K -0.866%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.30%EV -4.36%E -2.41%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.22%EV -2.06%E -0.561%K -0.770%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-10 04:05
DraftKings🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.47%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.29%EV -6.48%E -3.66%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 10:44
Unibet (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -5.47%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.76%EV -5.95%E -3.34%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.86%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 06:19
NordicBet🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.33%EV -6.50%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.86%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 06:20
Betsson🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.33%EV -6.50%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.86%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 06:20
Betclic (FR)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.18%EV -6.50%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.37%EV -9.12%E -5.30%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.45%EV -7.65%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 20:04
Unibet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.53%E -1.67%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -10.18%E -5.99%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 20:05
betfred_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.37%EV -11.02%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -4.89%E -2.72%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-07 19:54
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -11.02%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-07 11:34
888sport🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -11.02%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 10:43
888sport (SE)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -11.02%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 10:43
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -11.02%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 10:43
William Hill🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -11.02%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 10:43
Winamax (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -13.69%E -3.26%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.70%EV -10.18%E -5.99%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-08 06:19
Winamax (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.64%EV -17.80%E -4.45%K -5.93%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.14%EV -12.29%E -7.40%K -18.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.23%EV -12.18%E -3.69%K -5.29%G +0.000%15.5%2026-05-08 06:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.76I 21.01%NM 20.79%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.50%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-05-09 18:00