The School of Odds
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JEF United Chiba v Avispa Fukuoka

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 05:00 UTC

Final: JEF United Chiba 3–0 Avispa Fukuoka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JEF United Chiba (Local)

Prediction 34.11%2.93fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.376%
Kelly -0.574%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.89%33.99%34.11%35.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.742.722.9040.00%36.54%36.76%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avispa Fukuoka (Visit)

Prediction 36.46%2.74fair odd
EV -0.818%
Edge -0.301%
Kelly -0.475%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.98%36.53%36.47%39.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.472.502.7244.84%40.49%40.00%36.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.43%3.40fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.600%
Kelly -0.858%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.43%29.48%29.42%31.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.133.153.3335.09%31.95%31.75%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JEF United Chiba (Local): 34.11%; Avispa Fukuoka (Visit): 36.46%; Draw: 29.43%. For Avispa Fukuoka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.72, with an expected value of -0.818%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -1.09%E -0.376%K -0.574%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -13.22%E -5.55%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -4.35%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 04:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -1.09%E -0.376%K -0.574%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -13.22%E -5.55%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -4.35%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 04:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.14%EV -1.77%E -0.616%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -14.31%E -6.09%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -4.35%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-01 04:30
BetRivers🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.14%EV -1.77%E -0.616%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -14.31%E -6.09%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -4.35%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-01 04:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -1.77%E -0.616%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.41%EV -15.04%E -6.45%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:30
TABtouch🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -1.77%E -0.616%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.41%EV -15.04%E -6.45%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:30
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -1.77%E -0.616%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.41%EV -15.04%E -6.45%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:30
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -1.77%E -0.616%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.41%EV -15.04%E -6.45%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -1.77%E -0.616%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.41%EV -15.04%E -6.45%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:30
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -1.77%E -0.616%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.41%EV -15.04%E -6.45%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:30
betPARX🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -1.77%E -0.616%K -0.943%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.41%EV -15.04%E -6.45%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 04:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -2.80%E -0.981%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -16.13%E -7.01%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 04:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -2.80%E -0.981%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -16.13%E -7.01%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 04:30
1xBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.87%EV -3.82%E -1.35%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.45%EV -7.02%E -2.75%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.68%EV -2.00%E -0.600%K -0.858%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-01 04:30
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.59%EV -4.16%E -1.48%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 36.13%EV -1.91%E -0.711%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.28%EV -2.29%E -0.691%K -0.989%G +0.000%2.9%2026-11-01 04:35
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -4.50%E -1.61%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.27%EV -7.02%E -2.75%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -2.88%E -0.873%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 04:20
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -4.50%E -1.61%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -7.02%E -2.75%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 04:30
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -6.21%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.30%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-01 04:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -6.21%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.49%EV -9.57%E -3.86%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.70%EV -4.65%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 04:30
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -6.21%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.02%E -2.75%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 03:34
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.21%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 03:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -6.21%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -16.13%E -5.66%K -8.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-01 04:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.05%EV -6.21%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.52%EV -18.69%E -8.38%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-01 04:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.92%EV -6.55%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.18%EV -0.818%E -0.301%K -0.475%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.90%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-01 04:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.92%EV -6.55%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.18%EV -0.818%E -0.301%K -0.475%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.90%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-01 04:40
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -3.37%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -7.30%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 04:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 04:30
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -3.37%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 04:40
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -7.02%E -2.75%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -7.30%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-01 04:45
picklebet_au🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 04:35
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -7.30%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 04:20
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -12.49%E -5.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-01 04:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -10.66%E -4.35%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-01 03:35
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -10.66%E -4.35%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-01 03:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -10.66%E -4.35%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-01 03:35
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -10.66%E -4.35%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-01 03:35
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -9.62%E -3.63%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.02%E -2.75%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 04:30
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -9.62%E -3.63%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.02%E -2.75%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 04:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -9.62%E -3.63%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -10.66%E -4.35%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-01 04:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.39%EV -10.30%E -3.92%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.47%EV -7.02%E -2.75%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.15%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-01 04:45
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -10.64%E -4.06%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-01 04:40
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -10.64%E -4.06%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 04:40
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -10.64%E -4.06%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 04:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -10.64%E -4.06%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 04:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -10.64%E -4.06%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 04:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -11.32%E -4.36%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-01 04:30
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.32%E -4.36%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 04:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 34.12%EV -12.35%E -4.80%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.84%EV -13.22%E -5.55%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.04%EV -11.12%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-01 04:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.52%EV -13.03%E -5.11%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.99%EV -17.96%E -7.98%K -14.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.49%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%17.0%2026-11-01 04:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.95%EV -14.73%E -5.89%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.40%EV -12.49%E -5.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -10.24%E -3.36%K -5.00%G +0.000%14.5%2026-11-01 04:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.54%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.53%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93%1.2%2026-11-01 04:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.45%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.70%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.86%1.5%2026-11-01 04:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.45%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.70%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.86%1.5%2026-11-01 04:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.61%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.61%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.78%1.7%2026-11-01 04:35
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.27%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.30%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.43%2.0%2026-11-01 04:30
Smarkets◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.27%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.03%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70%2.0%2026-11-01 04:40

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