The School of Odds
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JEF United Chiba v Avispa Fukuoka

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 05:00 UTC

Final: JEF United Chiba 1–2 Avispa Fukuoka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JEF United Chiba (Local)

Prediction 31.94%3.13fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.419%
Kelly -0.619%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.29%31.90%32.01%32.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.882.903.0937.04%34.68%34.48%32.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avispa Fukuoka (Visit)

Prediction 36.18%2.76fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -0.996%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.19%36.15%36.19%37.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.532.502.6941.67%39.50%40.00%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.88%3.14fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.57%31.95%31.80%33.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.892.923.0036.36%34.60%34.25%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JEF United Chiba (Local): 31.94%; Avispa Fukuoka (Visit): 36.18%; Draw: 31.88%. For JEF United Chiba (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.09, with an expected value of -1.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 31.32%EV -1.29%E -0.419%K -0.619%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.98%EV -2.68%E -0.996%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.70%EV -5.64%E -1.91%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.3%2026-06-06 04:50
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -5.77%E -1.95%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -4.37%E -1.46%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-06 04:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.27%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.00%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -5.96%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-06 04:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -11.36%E -4.64%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -5.96%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-06 04:39
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -12.34%E -4.49%K -7.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-06 04:50
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.74%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-06 03:59
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.74%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-06 04:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.74%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-06 03:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.74%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-06 03:59
Betsson🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -8.00%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -6.66%E -2.58%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -6.92%E -2.37%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-06 04:39
NordicBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -8.00%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -6.66%E -2.58%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -6.92%E -2.37%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-06 04:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.88%EV -8.96%E -3.14%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.79%EV -10.64%E -4.31%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.33%EV -7.56%E -2.61%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-06 04:39
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -4.37%E -1.46%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-06 03:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -5.96%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-06 04:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.55%EV -13.75%E -5.09%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.62%EV -13.17%E -5.49%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.84%EV -9.15%E -3.21%K -4.95%G +0.000%13.8%2026-06-06 04:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.09%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.92%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.99%3.1%2026-06-06 04:50