The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Shimizu S Pulse

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)

Prediction 56.98%1.76fair odd
EV -5.42%
Edge -3.26%
Kelly -8.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.92%56.98%57.05%58.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.611.611.6664.10%62.02%62.11%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shimizu S Pulse (Visit)

Prediction 17.98%5.56fair odd
EV +2.65%
Edge +0.465%
Kelly +0.563%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 5.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.92%17.93%17.97%18.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.095.005.7121.28%19.64%20.00%17.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.05%3.99fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -0.727%
Kelly -0.980%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.34%25.09%24.98%25.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.643.603.8828.57%27.46%27.78%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 56.98%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visit): 17.98%; Draw: 25.05%. For Shimizu S Pulse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.19%EV -5.42%E -3.26%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.92%EV +2.65%E +0.465%K +0.563%G +0.015%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.90%EV -2.82%E -0.727%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 04:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.91%EV -8.27%E -5.14%K -13.55%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.43%EV -3.82%E -0.714%K -0.878%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.66%EV -5.33%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 04:20
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.19%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.62%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -4.83%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 04:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.45%EV -7.70%E -4.75%K -12.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -5.62%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 04:54
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.70%E -4.75%K -12.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -5.62%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 04:30
BetAnything🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -6.56%E -4.00%K -10.25%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -6.52%E -1.25%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 04:15
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.06%EV -7.70%E -4.75%K -12.42%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.95%EV -7.41%E -1.44%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 04:55
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.06%EV -7.70%E -4.75%K -12.42%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.95%EV -7.41%E -1.44%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 04:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.69%EV -11.12%E -7.13%K -19.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.65%EV -8.31%E -1.63%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.66%EV -8.58%E -2.35%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 04:54
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.92%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -10.11%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 04:15
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -7.70%E -4.75%K -12.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -10.11%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-11 04:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -8.27%E -5.14%K -13.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.11%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 04:43
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -8.27%E -5.14%K -13.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.11%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 04:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -8.27%E -5.14%K -13.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.11%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 04:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -8.27%E -5.14%K -13.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.11%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 04:19
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -8.84%E -5.52%K -14.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -10.11%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.34%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 04:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -8.84%E -5.52%K -14.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -10.11%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.34%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 04:35
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -8.84%E -5.52%K -14.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -10.11%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.34%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 04:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -8.84%E -5.52%K -14.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -10.11%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.34%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 04:35
BoyleSports🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -8.84%E -5.52%K -14.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -10.11%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.34%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 04:32
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.04%EV -8.84%E -5.52%K -14.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.62%EV -11.91%E -2.43%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 04:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.45%EV -11.12%E -7.13%K -19.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.74%EV -15.50%E -3.30%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.81%EV -11.09%E -3.12%K -4.35%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-11 04:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.51%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.78%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-04-11 04:35