The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Shimizu S Pulse

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 05:03 UTC

Final: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC 4–0 Shimizu S Pulse

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)

Prediction 66.74%1.50fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -7.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.27%66.83%66.63%69.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.391.401.4577.52%71.90%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shimizu S Pulse (Visit)

Prediction 13.50%7.41fair odd
EV +1.27%
Edge +0.169%
Kelly +0.195%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.58%13.51%13.52%15.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.666.507.5016.67%15.01%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.76%5.06fair odd
EV +1.18%
Edge +0.231%
Kelly +0.287%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 5.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.24%19.65%19.85%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.544.505.1224.39%22.02%22.22%19.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 66.74%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visit): 13.50%; Draw: 19.76%. For Shimizu S Pulse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.41. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.29%EV -5.90%E -4.19%K -14.40%G +0.000%7.46I 13.40%NM 12.91%EV +0.727%E +0.098%K +0.113%G +0.001%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.81%EV +1.18%E +0.231%K +0.287%G +0.003%3.9%2026-10-24 04:55
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.57%E -4.69%K -16.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -5.48%E -0.783%K -0.914%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.19%E -0.238%K -0.297%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 04:59
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.51%EV -9.24%E -6.79%K -25.67%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.85%EV -2.11%E -0.291%K -0.337%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -1.19%E -0.238%K -0.297%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 04:55
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -11.24%E -8.45%K -34.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -5.48%E -0.783%K -0.914%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -1.19%E -0.238%K -0.297%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 04:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -11.91%E -9.02%K -37.22%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.67%EV -2.78%E -0.387%K -0.449%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -1.19%E -0.238%K -0.297%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.99%EV -5.24%E -3.69%K -12.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -5.48%E -0.783%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -3.17%E -0.646%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 05:00
BetAnything🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.40%EV -5.90%E -4.19%K -14.40%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.20%EV -2.78%E -0.387%K -0.449%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40%EV -3.17%E -0.646%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 04:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.24%E -3.69%K -12.47%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.21%EV -2.78%E -0.387%K -0.449%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.81%EV -5.14%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 04:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.90%EV -7.91%E -5.73%K -20.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -18.99%E -3.16%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -5.14%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 04:59
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.19%EV -5.24%E -3.69%K -12.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.72%EV +1.27%E +0.169%K +0.195%G +0.002%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -6.13%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 04:58
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.43%EV -4.57%E -3.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -5.48%E -0.783%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -6.13%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 05:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.93%EV -7.24%E -5.21%K -18.56%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.48%EV -6.83%E -0.990%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59%EV -6.13%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-21 10:50
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.89%EV -7.91%E -5.73%K -20.80%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -8.86%E -1.31%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -6.13%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 04:55
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.54%EV -7.91%E -5.73%K -20.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.33%EV -6.13%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 22:08
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -11.24%E -8.45%K -34.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -6.13%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 04:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -11.24%E -8.45%K -34.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -6.13%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 04:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -6.57%E -4.69%K -16.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -5.48%E -0.783%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -9.09%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 05:00
picklebet_au🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -6.57%E -4.69%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -15.61%E -2.50%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -9.09%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 05:00
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.27%EV -7.91%E -5.73%K -20.80%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.86%EV -10.88%E -1.65%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -9.09%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 04:59
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.27%EV -7.91%E -5.73%K -20.80%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.86%EV -10.88%E -1.65%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -9.09%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 04:59
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.71%EV -3.23%E -2.23%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.19I 13.91%NM 13.25%EV -2.92%E -0.406%K -0.471%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.03%EV -10.48%E -2.31%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 04:55
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -5.24%E -3.69%K -12.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV +1.27%E +0.169%K +0.195%G +0.002%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -11.07%E -2.46%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 05:00
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.50%EV -7.91%E -5.73%K -20.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -5.48%E -0.783%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -11.07%E -2.46%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 04:59
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.57%E -4.69%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.07%E -2.46%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 04:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.57%E -4.69%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.07%E -2.46%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 04:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.57%E -4.69%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.07%E -2.46%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 04:59
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -11.24%E -8.45%K -34.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -5.48%E -0.783%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.07%E -2.46%K -3.16%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 04:59
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -11.24%E -8.45%K -34.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -11.07%E -2.46%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 03:13
Svenska Spel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.41%EV -3.23%E -2.23%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -13.05%E -2.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 04:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.41%EV -3.23%E -2.23%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -13.05%E -2.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 04:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.87%EV -7.91%E -5.73%K -20.80%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -8.86%E -1.31%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -13.05%E -2.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 04:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -9.91%E -7.34%K -28.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -13.05%E -2.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-24 05:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.61%EV -10.57%E -7.89%K -31.10%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.41%EV -17.64%E -2.89%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.98%EV -13.05%E -2.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-24 04:58
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 66.46%EV -13.91%E -10.78%K -47.97%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.05%EV -17.64%E -2.89%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.48%EV -13.05%E -2.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-24 04:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.43%EV -4.57%E -3.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -13.59%E -2.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.18%EV -14.03%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 04:15
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.43%EV -4.57%E -3.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -13.59%E -2.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.18%EV -14.03%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 04:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -9.24%E -6.79%K -25.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -14.43%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 04:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -9.24%E -6.79%K -25.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -14.43%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 04:55
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -9.24%E -6.79%K -25.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -14.43%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 04:55
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -9.24%E -6.79%K -25.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -12.23%E -1.88%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -14.43%E -3.33%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 05:00
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.27%EV -4.57%E -3.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -13.59%E -2.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -15.02%E -3.49%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 04:15
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.27%EV -4.57%E -3.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -13.59%E -2.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -15.02%E -3.49%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 04:15
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.27%EV -4.57%E -3.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -13.59%E -2.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -15.02%E -3.49%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 04:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.27%EV -4.57%E -3.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -13.59%E -2.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -15.02%E -3.49%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 04:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.27%EV -4.57%E -3.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -13.59%E -2.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -15.02%E -3.49%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 04:15
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.27%EV -4.57%E -3.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -13.59%E -2.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -15.02%E -3.49%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 04:15
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.27%EV -4.57%E -3.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -13.59%E -2.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -15.02%E -3.49%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 04:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.37%EV -5.90%E -4.19%K -14.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -15.61%E -2.50%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -15.02%E -3.49%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 04:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.37%EV -5.90%E -4.19%K -14.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -15.61%E -2.50%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -15.02%E -3.49%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 04:15
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -6.57%E -4.69%K -16.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -5.48%E -0.783%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -17.00%E -4.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 05:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.32%EV -9.24%E -6.79%K -25.67%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.34%EV -17.64%E -2.89%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -18.98%E -4.63%K -6.12%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-24 04:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 69.09%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%0.5%2026-10-24 05:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 69.09%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%0.5%2026-10-24 05:00
Matchbook◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.88%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.40%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-10-24 05:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.24%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.08%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.68%1.0%2026-10-24 05:00
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.60%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.76%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%1.9%2026-10-24 05:00
Smarkets◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.30%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.92%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.79%2.3%2026-10-24 05:00