The School of Odds
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Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Shimizu S Pulse

2026-10-24 05:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)

Prediction 62.70%1.59fair odd
EV -6.58%
Edge -4.41%
Kelly -13.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.33%62.70%62.70%62.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.471.471.4970.92%68.09%68.03%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shimizu S Pulse (Visit)

Prediction 15.47%6.47fair odd
EV -7.20%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.36%15.47%15.47%15.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.605.946.006.0017.86%16.83%16.67%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.83%4.58fair odd
EV -6.11%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.73%21.83%21.83%21.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.214.204.3025.00%23.77%23.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 62.70%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visit): 15.47%; Draw: 21.83%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.58. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.30, with an expected value of -6.11%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.70%EV -6.58%E -4.41%K -13.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -6.11%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 05:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.70%EV -6.58%E -4.41%K -13.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -6.11%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 05:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.70%EV -7.20%E -4.87%K -15.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -7.20%E -1.70%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-19 05:20
BetRivers🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.70%EV -7.20%E -4.87%K -15.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -7.20%E -1.70%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-19 05:20
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.70%EV -7.83%E -5.33%K -16.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -8.30%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 05:19
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.70%EV -7.83%E -5.33%K -16.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -8.30%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 05:20
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.70%EV -7.83%E -5.33%K -16.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -8.30%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 05:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.70%EV -7.83%E -5.33%K -16.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -8.30%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 05:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.70%EV -7.83%E -5.33%K -16.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -8.30%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 05:20
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.70%EV -7.83%E -5.33%K -16.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -8.30%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 05:20
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.70%EV -7.83%E -5.33%K -16.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -8.30%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 05:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.53%EV -8.46%E -5.79%K -18.39%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV -10.30%E -1.78%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.30%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-19 05:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.53%EV -8.46%E -5.79%K -18.39%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV -10.30%E -1.78%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.30%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-19 05:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.33%EV -11.59%E -8.22%K -28.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.69%EV -13.39%E -2.39%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -12.66%E -3.17%K -4.22%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-19 05:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.25I 80.00%NM 33.77%1.28I 78.13%NM 32.98%1.27I 78.74%NM 33.24%136.9%2026-10-19 07:05