The School of Odds
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Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Nagoya Grampus

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 05:00 UTC

Final: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC 4–2 Nagoya Grampus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)

Prediction 51.00%1.96fair odd
EV -4.64%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -5.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.23%50.90%51.02%51.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.811.831.8757.47%55.14%54.79%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nagoya Grampus (Visit)

Prediction 24.94%4.01fair odd
EV +0.004%
Edge +0.001%
Kelly +0.001%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.39%24.92%24.90%25.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.673.674.0129.41%27.27%27.21%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.07%4.16fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -0.996%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.09%24.19%24.08%25.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.753.753.9927.78%26.66%26.67%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 51.00%; Nagoya Grampus (Visit): 24.94%; Draw: 24.07%. For Nagoya Grampus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.0098. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.0100, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.004%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -4.64%E -2.48%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.10%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.22%EV -3.98%E -0.996%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 04:50
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -8.21%E -4.56%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -0.245%E -0.061%K -0.082%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.55%E -2.25%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 03:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.51%EV -7.70%E -4.25%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.28%EV -7.59%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 04:49
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -4.64%E -2.48%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.14%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 04:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.23%EV -7.19%E -3.95%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.14%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 04:50
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -8.21%E -4.56%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -9.75%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 04:19
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -6.68%E -3.65%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -13.36%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 04:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -6.68%E -3.65%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -13.36%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 04:49
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -4.64%E -2.48%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -9.75%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 04:40
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -8.21%E -4.56%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -7.34%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 04:50
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -8.21%E -4.56%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -7.34%E -1.91%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 04:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.36%EV -9.74%E -5.50%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.74%EV -7.83%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-23 04:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.69%EV -11.27%E -6.48%K -15.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -8.55%E -2.25%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-23 04:50
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -5.66%E -3.06%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.36%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 04:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -5.66%E -3.06%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -13.36%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 04:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.23%EV -9.23%E -5.18%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.09%EV -4.94%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-23 04:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -6.68%E -3.65%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -13.36%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-23 04:39
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -6.68%E -3.65%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -13.36%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-23 04:39
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -6.68%E -3.65%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -13.36%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-23 04:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -6.68%E -3.65%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -13.36%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-23 04:40
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -10.76%E -6.15%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -9.75%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-23 04:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.61%EV -11.27%E -6.48%K -15.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -15.21%E -4.47%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -9.75%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-23 04:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.46%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.27%3.0%2026-05-23 04:50