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Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Kyoto Purple Sanga
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)
Prediction 68.37%1.46fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -6.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.86%68.45%68.26%70.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.361.361.4278.13%73.70%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)
Prediction 12.68%7.89fair odd
EV +4.11%
Edge +0.501%
Kelly +0.570%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 8.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.53%12.70%12.76%14.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.097.008.2116.00%14.10%14.29%12.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.95%5.28fair odd
EV +0.425%
Edge +0.080%
Kelly +0.099%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.56%18.85%18.98%21.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.764.755.3022.73%20.99%21.05%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 68.37%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 12.68%; Draw: 18.95%. For Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.89. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.11%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.02%EV -2.91%E -2.05%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 8.21I 12.18%NM 11.59%EV +4.11%E +0.501%K +0.570%G +0.023% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.39%EV -15.68%E -3.52%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -5.65%E -4.09%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV +1.45%E +0.181%K +0.207%G +0.003% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -5.26%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.01%EV -7.70%E -5.70%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +1.45%E +0.181%K +0.207%G +0.003% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.18%EV -1.47%E -0.283%K -0.350%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.01%EV -7.70%E -5.70%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +1.45%E +0.181%K +0.207%G +0.003% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.18%EV -1.47%E -0.283%K -0.350%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.66%EV -8.38%E -6.26%K -24.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +1.45%E +0.181%K +0.207%G +0.003% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -5.26%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-17 04:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.39%EV -10.43%E -7.97%K -33.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV +1.45%E +0.181%K +0.207%G +0.003% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.08%EV -3.36%E -0.660%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-17 04:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.76%EV -5.65%E -4.09%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 7.97I 12.55%NM 12.08%EV +1.07%E +0.134%K +0.153%G +0.002% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.16%EV +0.425%E +0.080%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-17 04:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.87%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.01%EV -1.09%E -0.140%K -0.160%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -7.15%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.45%EV -8.38%E -6.26%K -24.66%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.93%EV -1.09%E -0.140%K -0.160%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -5.26%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-17 04:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.33%E -4.62%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -4.89%E -0.652%K -0.753%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -5.26%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -4.89%E -0.652%K -0.753%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.26%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 04:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -4.89%E -0.652%K -0.753%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -10.00%E -2.10%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-17 04:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.57%EV -7.70%E -5.70%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -4.89%E -0.652%K -0.753%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.09%EV -8.10%E -1.67%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-17 04:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.87%EV -7.70%E -5.70%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -4.89%E -0.652%K -0.753%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -12.84%E -2.79%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.26%EV -11.12%E -8.55%K -37.06%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -4.89%E -0.652%K -0.753%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%EV -1.47%E -0.283%K -0.350%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -11.12%E -8.55%K -37.06%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -4.89%E -0.652%K -0.753%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -10.00%E -2.10%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-17 04:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -11.12%E -8.55%K -37.06%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -4.89%E -0.652%K -0.753%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -10.00%E -2.10%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -6.33%E -4.62%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -5.26%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -9.05%E -1.89%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -10.00%E -2.10%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-17 04:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -10.00%E -2.10%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-17 04:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -10.00%E -2.10%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -10.00%E -2.10%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -10.00%E -2.10%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.56%EV -7.70%E -5.70%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -10.94%E -2.33%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.56%EV -7.70%E -5.70%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -10.94%E -2.33%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -7.70%E -5.70%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -12.84%E -2.79%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.03%EV -9.07%E -6.82%K -27.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -10.00%E -2.10%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-17 04:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -11.12%E -8.55%K -37.06%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -11.23%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -12.84%E -2.79%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.41%EV -3.60%E -2.55%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -10.00%E -2.10%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 04:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.41%EV -3.60%E -2.55%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -10.00%E -2.10%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 04:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -4.28%E -3.06%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -10.94%E -2.33%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-12 05:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -4.28%E -3.06%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -10.94%E -2.33%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-12 05:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.65%E -4.09%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.94%E -2.33%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 05:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.65%E -4.09%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.94%E -2.33%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 05:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.65%E -4.09%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.94%E -2.33%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 05:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.65%E -4.09%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.94%E -2.33%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 05:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.65%E -4.09%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.94%E -2.33%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 05:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.65%E -4.09%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.94%E -2.33%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 05:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.65%E -4.09%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.94%E -2.33%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 05:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.29%EV -9.07%E -6.82%K -27.48%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.26%EV -14.40%E -2.13%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -12.84%E -2.79%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-17 04:53 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 68.06%EV -12.49%E -9.75%K -44.59%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.00%EV -15.04%E -2.24%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.94%EV -12.84%E -2.79%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-10-17 04:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.70%E -5.70%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -17.57%E -2.70%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -7.15%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.29%EV -6.33%E -4.62%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -17.57%E -2.70%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -12.84%E -2.79%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-12 05:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.29%EV -6.33%E -4.62%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -17.57%E -2.70%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -12.84%E -2.79%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-12 05:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -17.57%E -2.70%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -16.63%E -3.78%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -17.57%E -2.70%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -16.63%E -3.78%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -17.57%E -2.70%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -16.63%E -3.78%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -7.02%E -5.16%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -17.57%E -2.70%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -16.63%E -3.78%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.69%EV -9.75%E -7.39%K -30.47%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.75%EV -18.84%E -2.94%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.56%EV -14.73%E -3.27%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-10-12 05:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.12%EV -9.07%E -6.82%K -27.48%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.28%EV -20.74%E -3.32%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.60%EV -9.05%E -1.89%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-17 04:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.74% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.01% | 1.0% | 2026-10-17 04:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.74% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.01% | 1.0% | 2026-10-17 04:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.74% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.01% | 1.0% | 2026-10-17 04:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.74% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.01% | 1.0% | 2026-10-17 04:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.89% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.20% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.92% | 1.5% | 2026-10-17 04:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.58% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.78% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.64% | 1.9% | 2026-10-17 04:45 |