The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Kawasaki Frontale

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 05:00 UTC

Final: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC 2–1 Kawasaki Frontale

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)

Prediction 50.53%1.98fair odd
EV -5.51%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -6.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.30%50.72%50.54%52.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.811.801.8757.80%55.19%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kawasaki Frontale (Visit)

Prediction 24.97%4.00fair odd
EV +5.88%
Edge +1.39%
Kelly +1.81%
Growth +0.107%

assuming max odds 4.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.80%24.79%24.90%25.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.693.684.2429.41%27.11%27.17%23.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.50%4.08fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.83%24.49%24.57%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.693.703.9228.57%27.08%27.03%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 50.53%; Kawasaki Frontale (Visit): 24.97%; Draw: 24.50%. For Kawasaki Frontale (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.24, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.54%EV -7.02%E -3.82%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.80%EV +5.88%E +1.39%K +1.81%G +0.107%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.66%EV -3.97%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-30 04:40
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -12.58%E -7.27%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -0.115%E -0.029%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -8.13%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-30 04:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.47%EV -10.06%E -5.65%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.70%EV -1.61%E -0.409%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.83%EV -3.97%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-30 04:50
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -5.11%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -4.46%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 04:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -7.53%E -4.11%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.11%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.81%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-30 04:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -7.53%E -4.11%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.11%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.81%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-30 04:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.36%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.91%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-30 04:50
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -6.36%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -8.13%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 04:49
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.58%EV -8.03%E -4.41%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.61%E -2.06%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.13%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-30 04:50
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.58%EV -8.03%E -4.41%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.61%E -2.06%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.13%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-30 04:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.62%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.76%EV -8.11%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -9.36%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 04:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.93%EV -10.56%E -5.97%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.70%EV -8.85%E -2.43%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -9.36%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-30 04:50
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.10%E -2.81%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -11.81%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-30 04:49
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.10%E -2.81%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -11.81%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-30 04:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -11.35%E -3.20%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -6.91%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 04:50
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -12.60%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -8.13%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-30 04:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -12.60%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -14.26%E -4.07%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-30 04:50
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -12.60%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -14.26%E -4.07%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-30 04:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -12.60%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -14.26%E -4.07%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-30 04:50
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -12.60%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -14.26%E -4.07%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-30 04:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.00%EV -11.07%E -6.29%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.88%EV -15.10%E -4.44%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.11%EV -10.58%E -2.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-30 04:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.46%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%3.0%2026-05-30 04:50