The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Avispa Fukuoka

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)

Prediction 65.25%1.53fair odd
EV -5.39%
Edge -3.72%
Kelly -11.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.88%65.16%65.26%66.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.411.401.4572.99%70.85%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avispa Fukuoka (Visit)

Prediction 12.98%7.70fair odd
EV +1.77%
Edge +0.225%
Kelly +0.258%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 7.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.28%13.04%12.99%14.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.937.007.8416.67%14.42%14.29%12.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.77%4.59fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.400%
Kelly -0.513%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.13%21.80%21.75%22.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.184.204.5125.00%23.95%23.81%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 65.25%; Avispa Fukuoka (Visit): 12.98%; Draw: 21.77%. For Avispa Fukuoka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.70. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.38%EV -5.39%E -3.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%7.84I 12.76%NM 12.28%EV +1.77%E +0.225%K +0.258%G +0.005%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.34%EV -1.80%E -0.400%K -0.513%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-05 04:50
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.49%EV -6.05%E -4.20%K -13.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -2.65%E -0.353%K -0.407%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -6.37%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 04:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.70%EV -7.35%E -5.18%K -17.50%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.61%EV -3.95%E -0.533%K -0.617%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -6.37%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 04:49
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -5.39%E -3.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -5.89%E -0.813%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -8.55%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 03:35
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.18%EV -7.35%E -5.18%K -17.50%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.04%EV -7.84%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -7.46%E -1.76%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 04:14
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.18%EV -7.35%E -5.18%K -17.50%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.04%EV -7.84%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -7.46%E -1.76%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 04:15
BetAnything🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.58%EV -6.05%E -4.20%K -13.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -9.14%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -8.55%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 03:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.39%EV -7.35%E -5.18%K -17.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -9.14%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35%EV -5.29%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 04:14
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.73%EV -6.70%E -4.68%K -15.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -9.14%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -8.55%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 04:49
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -8.66%E -6.18%K -21.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -9.14%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.55%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-05 03:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.38%EV -9.31%E -6.70%K -23.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -9.14%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -8.55%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-05 04:45
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -8.66%E -6.18%K -21.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -9.14%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.91%E -3.23%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-05 03:34
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -8.66%E -6.18%K -21.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -9.14%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.91%E -3.23%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-05 03:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.37%EV -9.96%E -7.22%K -26.21%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.89%EV -9.14%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.74%EV -9.64%E -2.32%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 04:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.89%EV -8.66%E -6.18%K -21.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -15.63%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -6.37%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-05 04:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -8.66%E -6.18%K -21.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -15.63%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.91%E -3.23%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-05 03:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -8.66%E -6.18%K -21.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -15.63%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.91%E -3.23%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-05 03:40
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -8.66%E -6.18%K -21.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -15.63%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.91%E -3.23%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-05 03:34
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -8.66%E -6.18%K -21.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -15.63%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.91%E -3.23%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-05 03:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.00%EV -10.61%E -7.75%K -28.68%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.61%EV -22.12%E -3.69%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.39%EV -10.73%E -2.62%K -3.46%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-05 04:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.