The School of Odds
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Gamba Osaka v Vissel Kobe

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 06:00 UTC

Final: Gamba Osaka 5–0 Vissel Kobe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gamba Osaka (Local)

Prediction 30.61%3.27fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.84%30.65%30.64%32.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.972.953.1535.09%33.64%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vissel Kobe (Visit)

Prediction 41.52%2.41fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.500%
Kelly -0.862%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.07%41.52%41.43%42.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.222.242.3847.62%45.12%44.64%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.88%3.59fair odd
EV -0.204%
Edge -0.057%
Kelly -0.079%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.03%27.83%27.94%28.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.253.5832.26%30.62%30.77%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gamba Osaka (Local): 30.61%; Vissel Kobe (Visit): 41.52%; Draw: 27.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.58, with an expected value of -0.204%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.72%EV -3.59%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.25%EV -4.93%E -2.15%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.03%EV -0.204%E -0.057%K -0.079%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-02 05:41
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.59%E -2.93%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 05:30
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.59%E -2.93%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 05:30
BetAnything🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.33%EV -6.65%E -2.18%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.15%EV -1.19%E -0.500%K -0.862%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -6.62%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-02 05:45
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -6.65%E -2.18%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -4.51%E -1.96%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.22%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 05:25
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -6.65%E -2.18%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.48%EV -7.83%E -3.53%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -9.40%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 05:31
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -6.65%E -2.18%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.48%EV -7.83%E -3.53%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -9.40%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 05:31
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.71%EV -6.96%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.67%EV -7.00%E -3.13%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.62%EV -5.78%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 05:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 30.04%EV -7.26%E -2.40%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.95%EV -9.91%E -4.57%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.40%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 05:34
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.18%E -2.73%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.59%E -2.93%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 05:45
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -8.18%E -2.73%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -12.81%E -6.10%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -9.40%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-02 05:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -9.71%E -3.29%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -10.74%E -4.99%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 05:30
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.59%E -2.93%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.40%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 05:55
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.59%E -2.93%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.40%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 05:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.59%E -2.93%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.40%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 05:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.59%E -2.93%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.40%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 05:55
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -10.74%E -4.99%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -13.58%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-02 05:56
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -10.74%E -4.99%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -13.58%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-02 05:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -10.74%E -4.99%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -13.58%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-02 05:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -10.74%E -4.99%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -13.58%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-02 05:55
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -11.85%E -4.12%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -4.51%E -1.96%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 05:30
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.85%E -4.12%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -10.74%E -4.99%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-02 05:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.79%EV -12.77%E -4.48%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.79%EV -12.81%E -6.10%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.42%EV -10.80%E -3.37%K -4.91%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-02 05:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.68%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78%0.9%2026-05-02 05:50