The School of Odds
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Gamba Osaka v V-Varen Nagasaki

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gamba Osaka (Local)

Prediction 44.63%2.24fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.17%44.63%44.63%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.052.052.1551.55%48.86%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit)

Prediction 29.44%3.40fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.679%
Kelly -0.972%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.99%29.45%29.39%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.093.103.3234.48%32.35%32.26%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.93%3.86fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.391%
Kelly -0.530%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.06%25.92%25.98%26.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.513.503.8029.85%28.49%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gamba Osaka (Local): 44.63%; V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit): 29.44%; Draw: 25.93%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -1.48%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.00%EV -4.04%E -1.88%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.14%EV -2.25%E -0.679%K -0.972%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.87%EV -3.04%E -0.813%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 05:50
BetAnything🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.71%EV -4.93%E -2.31%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -1.48%E -0.391%K -0.530%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 05:54
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.27%E -2.99%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.31%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -4.08%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 05:43
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.27%E -2.99%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.67%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-08 05:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.27%E -2.99%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.67%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 05:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.41%EV -6.27%E -2.99%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.32%EV -6.38%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -7.97%E -2.24%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 05:44
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.31%EV -7.16%E -3.44%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -7.97%E -2.24%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 05:44
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.31%EV -7.16%E -3.44%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -7.97%E -2.24%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 05:44
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -8.50%E -4.15%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.67%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-08 05:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -8.50%E -4.15%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.67%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-08 05:44
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.50%E -4.15%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.85%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-08 05:44
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.50%E -4.15%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.85%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-08 05:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.50%E -4.15%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.85%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-08 05:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.50%E -4.15%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.85%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-08 05:44
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.73%E -5.37%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.26%E -2.65%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-08 05:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -10.73%E -5.37%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.85%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-08 05:44
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -10.73%E -5.37%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.85%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-08 05:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.31%EV -11.63%E -5.87%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -14.62%E -5.04%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.43%EV -10.56%E -3.06%K -4.31%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-08 05:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.53%EV -12.07%E -6.13%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.44%EV -12.26%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.03%EV -12.63%E -3.75%K -5.33%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-08 05:44
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.58%EV -12.96%E -6.65%K -13.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.47%EV -13.15%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.95%EV -13.15%E -3.93%K -5.60%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-08 05:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.84%EV -13.41%E -6.91%K -14.27%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.19%EV -12.26%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -13.15%E -3.93%K -5.60%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-08 05:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 44.68%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%3.1%2026-03-08 05:44