The School of Odds
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Gamba Osaka v Tokyo Verdy

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 07:00 UTC

Final: Gamba Osaka 1–1 Tokyo Verdy

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gamba Osaka (Local)

Prediction 39.96%2.50fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.26%40.02%39.90%41.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.282.302.4045.45%43.79%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Verdy (Visit)

Prediction 29.34%3.41fair odd
EV +0.934%
Edge +0.271%
Kelly +0.383%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%29.31%29.38%31.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.103.4434.48%31.99%32.26%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.69%3.26fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.555%
Kelly -0.807%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.14%30.67%30.72%31.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.872.962.953.2034.84%33.75%33.90%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gamba Osaka (Local): 39.96%; Tokyo Verdy (Visit): 29.34%; Draw: 30.69%. For Tokyo Verdy (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.934%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.68%EV -7.28%E -3.14%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.11%EV +0.934%E +0.271%K +0.383%G +0.004%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.22%EV -1.78%E -0.555%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-30 06:40
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -0.240%E -0.071%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 06:38
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -12.08%E -5.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -3.17%E -0.962%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 06:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.64%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 06:50
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.99%EV -8.53%E -2.86%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-30 06:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.47%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.45%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.08%EV -10.06%E -3.43%K -5.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 06:48
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -12.08%E -5.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -6.11%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.45%E -3.20%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-30 06:50
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -4.09%E -1.70%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -7.58%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -4.85%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-30 06:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.56%EV -5.69%E -2.41%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -9.04%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.32%EV -5.46%E -1.77%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-30 06:50
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -6.09%E -2.59%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -9.04%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -8.53%E -2.86%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-30 06:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.04%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 06:50
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -9.04%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -11.60%E -4.03%K -6.17%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-30 06:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -9.04%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -11.60%E -4.03%K -6.17%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-30 06:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.04%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.91%E -4.15%K -6.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-30 06:50
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -10.08%E -4.48%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.04%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.91%E -4.15%K -6.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-30 06:50
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.98%E -3.79%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-30 06:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.98%E -3.79%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-30 06:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.98%E -3.79%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-30 06:50
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.08%E -3.51%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.98%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.98%E -3.79%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-30 06:49
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -4.89%E -2.05%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -14.91%E -5.14%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 06:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.73%EV -12.08%E -5.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.14%EV -14.91%E -5.14%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.14%EV -10.98%E -3.79%K -5.78%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-30 06:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66%1.0%2026-05-30 06:50