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Gamba Osaka v Shimizu S Pulse
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gamba Osaka (Local)
Prediction 42.98%2.33fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.87%42.97%43.05%44.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.132.152.2550.76%46.97%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Shimizu S Pulse (Visit)
Prediction 29.50%3.39fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.802%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.84%29.53%29.47%30.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.093.103.3033.90%32.39%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.52%3.63fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.22%27.50%27.47%28.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.303.253.5031.25%30.28%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gamba Osaka (Local): 42.98%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visit): 29.50%; Draw: 27.52%. For Shimizu S Pulse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -2.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.02%EV -3.30%E -1.47%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.33%EV -2.65%E -0.802%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-02-28 05:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -5.04%E -1.46%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-28 04:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.17%E -2.78%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 04:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.17%E -2.78%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 05:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.30%EV -6.31%E -2.90%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -9.17%E -2.78%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 05:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.21%EV -7.17%E -3.32%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -6.19%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 05:28 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -7.60%E -3.54%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -4.12%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 05:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -7.60%E -3.54%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.04%E -1.46%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 04:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.60%E -3.54%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-28 05:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.60%E -3.54%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-28 05:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.60%E -3.54%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-28 05:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.60%E -3.54%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-28 05:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -7.60%E -3.54%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-02-28 05:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -7.60%E -3.54%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -11.92%E -3.73%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-02-28 05:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -7.60%E -3.54%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -11.92%E -3.73%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-02-28 05:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -7.60%E -3.54%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -11.92%E -3.73%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-02-28 05:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -7.60%E -3.54%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -11.92%E -3.73%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-02-28 05:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -8.89%E -4.19%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -7.07%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 04:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.12%EV -11.90%E -5.80%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -10.02%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -5.04%E -1.46%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-02-28 04:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.83%EV -14.05%E -7.02%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 29.03%EV -10.91%E -3.61%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 27.14%EV -11.10%E -3.44%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-02-28 05:33 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.78%EV -14.05%E -7.02%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.68%EV -12.97%E -4.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -9.17%E -2.78%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-02-28 04:59 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 43.76%EV -14.48%E -7.28%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.21%EV -11.92%E -3.73%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-02-28 05:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.08%EV -15.34%E -7.79%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.95%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 26.97%EV -11.37%E -3.53%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-02-28 05:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.