The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Purple Sanga

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 07:03 UTC

Final: Gamba Osaka 2–2 Kyoto Purple Sanga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gamba Osaka (Local)

Prediction 52.41%1.91fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.91%52.48%52.42%55.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.771.781.8360.61%56.58%56.18%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)

Prediction 22.14%4.52fair odd
EV -0.379%
Edge -0.084%
Kelly -0.108%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.23%22.10%22.20%23.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.094.004.5026.67%24.42%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.46%3.93fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.450%
Kelly -0.607%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.47%25.42%25.37%26.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.593.603.8630.30%27.84%27.78%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gamba Osaka (Local): 52.41%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 22.14%; Draw: 25.46%. For Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.50, with an expected value of -0.379%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.86%EV -4.10%E -2.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 22.08%EV -3.04%E -0.693%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.06%EV -1.74%E -0.450%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 06:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -4.10%E -2.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -7.08%E -1.94%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 06:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -4.10%E -2.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -7.08%E -1.94%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 06:35
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.99%EV -5.15%E -2.84%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.55%E -3.18%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 06:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.99%EV -5.15%E -2.84%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.55%E -3.18%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 06:36
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -2.59%E -0.589%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -4.54%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 06:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -2.59%E -0.589%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -4.54%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 07:00
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -2.59%E -0.589%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -4.54%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 06:55
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -2.59%E -0.589%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -4.54%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 06:59
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -7.02%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.81%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 06:55
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 06:36
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.55%E -3.18%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 06:36
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.55%E -3.18%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 06:36
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.55%E -3.18%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 06:36
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.55%E -3.18%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 06:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.55%E -3.18%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 06:35
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.55%E -3.18%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 06:35
betPARX🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.55%E -3.18%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 06:35
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.90%E -3.11%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 06:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.90%E -3.11%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 06:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.90%E -3.11%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 06:55
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.90%E -3.11%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 06:55
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.36%EV -6.72%E -3.77%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.25%EV -1.04%E -0.233%K -0.301%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.39%EV -4.79%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 06:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.50%EV -6.72%E -3.77%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.02%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -5.81%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 06:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -6.72%E -3.77%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -8.13%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.29%EV -6.32%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 06:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -6.72%E -3.77%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.63%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 06:36
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -6.72%E -3.77%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.63%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 06:36
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -7.24%E -4.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -2.59%E -0.589%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:00
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.62%EV -7.24%E -4.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.51%EV -4.14%E -0.957%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 07:00
Bet Right🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.95%EV -7.77%E -4.41%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -9.23%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.75%EV -9.63%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 07:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.36%EV -7.77%E -4.41%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -9.63%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 07:00
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.55%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -4.81%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -3.26%E -0.859%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 06:50
picklebet_au🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -7.02%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -5.81%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 06:44
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -5.91%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -7.08%E -1.94%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 06:55
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.09%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -9.23%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -9.63%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 06:44
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.09%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -9.23%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -9.63%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 06:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.90%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -9.23%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -10.90%E -3.11%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 06:59
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -9.34%E -5.40%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.45%E -3.95%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-24 06:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -9.34%E -5.40%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.45%E -3.95%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-24 07:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -9.34%E -5.40%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.45%E -3.95%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-24 06:59
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -9.34%E -5.40%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.45%E -3.95%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-24 07:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.25%EV -9.86%E -5.73%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -15.88%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -12.17%E -3.53%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-24 07:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.09%EV -9.86%E -5.73%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.43%EV -16.98%E -4.53%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -12.17%E -3.53%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-24 06:36
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -10.39%E -6.07%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -2.59%E -0.589%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -3.26%E -0.859%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 06:49
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -10.91%E -6.42%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -7.02%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 06:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -10.91%E -6.42%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -7.02%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 06:45
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.04%EV -10.91%E -6.42%K -15.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.68%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -10.90%E -3.11%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-24 06:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.40%EV -10.91%E -6.42%K -15.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.12%EV -12.55%E -3.18%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.48%EV -15.99%E -4.85%K -6.95%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-24 07:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.26%EV -11.96%E -7.12%K -17.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.51%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.23%EV -11.41%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-24 06:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.17%EV -13.53%E -8.20%K -20.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -0.379%E -0.084%K -0.108%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -5.81%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 07:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84%0.6%2026-10-24 06:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84%0.6%2026-10-24 06:55
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.50%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-10-24 07:00
Matchbook◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.60%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.97%1.4%2026-10-24 07:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.21%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.87%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.92%1.6%2026-10-24 07:00
Smarkets◎1.81I 55.25%NM 53.15%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.86%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%3.9%2026-10-24 07:00