The School of Odds
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Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Purple Sanga

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 07:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gamba Osaka (Local)

Prediction 39.54%2.53fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.45%39.48%40.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.302.4545.45%43.01%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)

Prediction 32.99%3.03fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.50%33.04%33.00%33.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.772.802.9237.74%36.05%35.71%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.47%3.64fair odd
EV -0.847%
Edge -0.235%
Kelly -0.324%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.82%27.51%27.52%28.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.323.303.6131.25%30.13%30.30%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gamba Osaka (Local): 39.54%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 32.99%; Draw: 27.47%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.61, with an expected value of -0.847%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.12%E -1.27%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -9.28%E -3.37%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 05:24
Pinnacle🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.01%EV -4.30%E -1.78%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.16%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.82%EV -0.847%E -0.235%K -0.324%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 06:55
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -5.09%E -2.12%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -5.98%E -2.10%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 06:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.45%EV -5.88%E -2.47%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.98%E -2.10%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -6.61%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 06:00
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -5.88%E -2.47%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 05:55
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.88%E -2.47%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -9.28%E -3.37%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-04 06:43
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.51%EV -6.67%E -2.83%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.07%EV -6.97%E -2.47%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.61%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 06:54
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -7.07%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.98%E -2.10%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -5.24%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 06:55
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.29%EV -7.07%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.74%EV -6.97%E -2.47%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 06:00
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.29%EV -7.07%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.74%EV -6.97%E -2.47%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 06:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.28%E -3.37%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.61%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 06:00
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-04 06:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-04 06:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-04 06:55
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -10.93%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 06:40
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -10.93%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 06:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -10.93%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 06:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -10.93%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 06:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.92%EV -9.84%E -4.32%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 06:40
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -11.02%E -4.90%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -10.93%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -9.36%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 06:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.96%EV -13.00%E -5.91%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -10.93%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-04 06:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.89%EV -13.00%E -5.91%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.11%EV -12.58%E -4.75%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.00%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-04 06:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.79%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.02%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-04-04 06:45