The School of Odds
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Gamba Osaka v Avispa Fukuoka

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 10:00 UTC

Final: Gamba Osaka 1–2 Avispa Fukuoka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gamba Osaka (Local)

Prediction 49.33%2.03fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -4.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.44%49.28%49.14%49.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.861.851.9455.56%53.73%54.05%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avispa Fukuoka (Visit)

Prediction 23.18%4.31fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.513%
Kelly -0.672%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.49%23.29%23.31%24.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.933.904.2227.78%25.45%25.64%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.49%3.64fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.762%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.86%27.44%27.55%27.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.333.303.5431.25%30.04%30.30%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gamba Osaka (Local): 49.33%; Avispa Fukuoka (Visit): 23.18%; Draw: 27.49%. For Avispa Fukuoka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.22, with an expected value of -2.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.81%EV -4.30%E -2.22%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.90%EV -2.16%E -0.513%K -0.672%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.30%EV -2.70%E -0.762%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-22 09:45
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.52%EV -5.78%E -3.03%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.41%EV -5.17%E -1.50%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 09:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.78%E -3.03%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.54%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 09:39
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.78%E -3.03%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -11.90%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -6.54%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-22 09:35
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.82%EV -6.27%E -3.30%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -8.42%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -7.92%E -2.36%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 09:40
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.82%EV -6.27%E -3.30%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -8.42%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -7.92%E -2.36%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 09:39
BetAnything🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.78%EV -6.77%E -3.58%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.17%E -1.50%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -7.75%E -4.15%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -3.79%E -0.912%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -7.09%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 09:53
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.75%E -4.15%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.54%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-22 09:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.10%EV -8.25%E -4.43%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -11.90%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.86%EV -6.54%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-22 09:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.74%E -4.72%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -9.29%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-22 09:39
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.74%E -4.72%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -9.29%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-22 09:50
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.74%E -4.72%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -9.29%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-22 09:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.74%E -4.72%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -9.29%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-22 09:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.74%E -4.72%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -9.29%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-22 09:49
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -9.29%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-22 05:56
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -9.29%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-22 09:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -11.90%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.04%E -3.76%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-22 09:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -11.90%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.04%E -3.76%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-22 09:34
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -11.90%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.04%E -3.76%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-22 09:34
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -11.90%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.04%E -3.76%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-22 09:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -10.22%E -5.62%K -12.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.29%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-22 09:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.69%EV -11.21%E -6.23%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.34%EV -16.54%E -4.59%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -10.67%E -3.28%K -4.74%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-22 09:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.92%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52%1.9%2026-04-22 07:45