Language:English
FC Tokyo v Tokyo Verdy
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
FC Tokyo (Local)
Prediction 50.57%1.98fair odd
EV -4.43%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -4.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.83%50.52%50.61%51.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.831.831.8957.47%54.66%54.64%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tokyo Verdy (Visit)
Prediction 21.22%4.71fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.523%
Kelly -0.669%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.30%21.21%21.20%22.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.274.204.6025.00%23.42%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.22%3.54fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.518%
Kelly -0.727%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.63%28.27%28.19%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.233.253.4832.26%30.98%30.77%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Tokyo (Local): 50.57%; Tokyo Verdy (Visit): 21.22%; Draw: 28.22%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.48, with an expected value of -1.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.06%EV -4.43%E -2.34%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.21%EV -3.47%E -0.762%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.73%EV -1.80%E -0.518%K -0.727%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-10 04:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.63%EV -5.44%E -2.91%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -6.65%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 04:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.49%EV -5.44%E -2.91%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV -10.89%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-09 12:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.76%EV -6.45%E -3.49%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -10.89%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-09 18:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -6.45%E -3.49%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -10.89%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 17:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -6.45%E -3.49%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -10.89%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 17:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -6.45%E -3.49%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -10.89%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 17:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -6.45%E -3.49%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -10.89%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 17:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.85%EV -6.96%E -3.78%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-10 01:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.58%EV -7.46%E -4.08%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -8.14%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-06 12:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -7.46%E -4.08%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -8.14%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 10:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.68%EV -7.46%E -4.08%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -8.14%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.53%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-09 10:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.46%E -4.08%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.14%E -3.78%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.53%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-09 12:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.46%E -4.08%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.14%E -3.78%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.53%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-09 12:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.46%E -4.08%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.14%E -3.78%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.53%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-09 12:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.46%E -4.08%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.14%E -3.78%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.53%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-09 12:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.79%EV -7.97%E -4.38%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.77%EV -5.59%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 01:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.79%EV -7.97%E -4.38%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.77%EV -5.59%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 01:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.58%EV -8.47%E -4.68%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -2.41%E -0.523%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.12%EV -6.32%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 04:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -8.98%E -4.99%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.89%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-10 01:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.20%EV -9.49%E -5.30%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.60%EV -5.59%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-10 01:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.36%EV -10.50%E -5.93%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -6.65%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.97%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 01:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.32%EV -12.01%E -6.90%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.89%EV -15.14%E -3.78%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-05-10 01:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40% | 2.1% | 2026-05-10 02:39 |