The School of Odds
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FC Tokyo v JEF United Chiba

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 06:00 UTC

Final: FC Tokyo 0–3 JEF United Chiba

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Tokyo (Local)

Prediction 66.68%1.50fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.886%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.53%66.28%66.83%68.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.381.361.4874.63%72.64%73.53%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JEF United Chiba (Visit)

Prediction 13.16%7.60fair odd
EV +5.30%
Edge +0.662%
Kelly +0.757%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.45%13.42%13.08%15.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.987.008.0016.67%14.33%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.16%4.96fair odd
EV +1.59%
Edge +0.315%
Kelly +0.393%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 5.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.13%20.30%20.09%22.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.154.544.505.0424.10%22.03%22.22%19.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Tokyo (Local): 66.68%; JEF United Chiba (Visit): 13.16%; Draw: 20.16%. For JEF United Chiba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.60. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -9.31%E -6.85%K -25.87%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV +5.30%E +0.662%K +0.757%G +0.040%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -12.72%E -2.94%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 05:20
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.37%EV -5.98%E -4.24%K -14.58%G +0.000%7.71I 12.97%NM 12.50%EV +1.48%E +0.192%K +0.221%G +0.003%5.04I 19.84%NM 19.13%EV +1.59%E +0.315%K +0.393%G +0.006%3.7%2026-05-06 05:55
DraftKings🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.49%EV -5.98%E -4.24%K -14.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -1.28%E -0.171%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.82%EV -3.25%E -0.677%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 05:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.65%E -4.75%K -16.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -1.28%E -0.171%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.28%E -1.58%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-06 05:29
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.06%EV -7.98%E -5.78%K -21.00%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.03%EV -6.55%E -0.922%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.90%EV -6.27%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-06 05:34
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.31%E -6.85%K -25.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -7.86%E -1.12%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -9.30%E -2.07%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 05:40
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.31%E -6.85%K -25.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -7.86%E -1.12%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -9.30%E -2.07%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 05:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.31%E -6.85%K -25.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -7.86%E -1.12%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -9.30%E -2.07%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 05:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.31%E -6.85%K -25.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -7.86%E -1.12%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -9.30%E -2.07%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 05:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.84%EV -9.31%E -6.85%K -25.87%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.18%EV -9.18%E -1.33%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.98%EV -8.29%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 05:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.17%EV -10.65%E -7.95%K -31.31%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.05%EV -9.18%E -1.33%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.78%EV -8.29%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-06 05:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.57%EV -8.65%E -6.31%K -23.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -14.45%E -2.22%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -5.27%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-06 05:29
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -9.31%E -6.85%K -25.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -14.45%E -2.22%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -12.72%E -2.94%K -3.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-06 04:30
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.53%EV -1.31%E -0.886%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.17%EV -19.71%E -3.23%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.30%EV -16.35%E -3.94%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 00:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.45%EV -10.65%E -7.95%K -31.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -21.03%E -3.50%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.93%EV -11.31%E -2.57%K -3.33%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-06 05:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.57%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.78%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%1.9%2026-05-06 05:45