The School of Odds
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FC Tokyo v Cerezo Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 05:00 UTC

Final: FC Tokyo 1–3 Cerezo Osaka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Tokyo (Local)

Prediction 46.84%2.13fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.64%46.81%46.88%47.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.971.972.0653.19%50.82%50.76%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cerezo Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -0.883%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.59%27.14%27.12%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.373.403.5731.75%29.70%29.41%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.03%3.84fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -0.777%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.34%26.05%26.00%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.483.503.7330.30%28.71%28.57%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Tokyo (Local): 46.84%; Cerezo Osaka (Visit): 27.13%; Draw: 26.03%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.73, with an expected value of -2.90%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.96%EV -3.51%E -1.70%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.10%EV -3.15%E -0.883%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.94%EV -2.90%E -0.777%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.4%2026-06-06 04:50
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.36%EV -6.32%E -3.16%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.68%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -4.98%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-06 04:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -6.32%E -3.16%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -6.28%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-06 03:39
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -6.32%E -3.16%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -6.28%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-06 04:49
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.32%E -3.16%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-06 03:50
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.32%E -3.16%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -11.49%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-06 04:19
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.32%E -3.16%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -11.49%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-06 04:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.32%E -3.16%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -11.49%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-06 04:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.32%E -3.16%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -11.49%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-06 04:19
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.55%EV -7.26%E -3.67%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-06 03:39
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.55%EV -7.26%E -3.67%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-06 03:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.60%EV -8.20%E -4.18%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.35%EV -4.20%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-06 04:50
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.66%E -4.44%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.48%E -3.17%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.28%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-06-06 04:19
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -8.66%E -4.44%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.83%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -14.09%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-06 03:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -8.66%E -4.44%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.83%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -14.09%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-06 03:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -8.66%E -4.44%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.83%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -14.09%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-06 03:50
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -8.66%E -4.44%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.83%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -14.09%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-06 03:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.02%EV -9.13%E -4.71%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -10.48%E -3.17%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.28%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-06 03:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.12%EV -9.60%E -4.97%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.13%EV -9.41%E -2.70%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-06 04:39
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.54%E -5.52%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.83%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-06 04:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -11.01%E -5.79%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-06 04:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.52%EV -11.94%E -6.35%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.76%EV -14.55%E -4.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.72%EV -11.49%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%14.3%2026-06-06 03:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%2.0%2026-06-06 04:19