The School of Odds
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FC Machida Zelvia v Urawa Red Diamonds

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 10:30 UTC

Final: FC Machida Zelvia 1–0 Urawa Red Diamonds

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Machida Zelvia (Local)

Prediction 40.65%2.46fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -2.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.46%40.60%40.66%41.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.262.252.3646.51%44.15%44.44%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit)

Prediction 28.49%3.51fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.496%
Kelly -0.698%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.74%28.51%28.47%29.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.203.4533.33%31.33%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.86%3.24fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.95%30.88%30.87%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.872.962.963.1234.84%33.76%33.78%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Machida Zelvia (Local): 40.65%; Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit): 28.49%; Draw: 30.86%. For Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -1.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.98%EV -4.06%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.03%EV -1.71%E -0.496%K -0.698%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.99%EV -3.72%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-22 10:10
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -4.47%E -1.90%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.43%E -2.48%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-22 09:40
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -6.50%E -2.83%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.56%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.88%E -1.93%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 09:30
BetAnything🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -6.50%E -2.83%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.98%E -1.81%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.88%E -1.93%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-22 10:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.50%E -2.83%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.88%E -1.93%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-22 09:39
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.50%E -2.83%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.68%E -3.77%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.43%E -2.48%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-22 09:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.71%EV -6.91%E -3.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -6.55%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.87%EV -6.81%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-22 10:20
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.44%EV -7.31%E -3.21%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -7.43%E -2.48%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 09:40
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.44%EV -7.31%E -3.21%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -7.43%E -2.48%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 09:40
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -5.98%E -1.81%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-22 10:10
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -5.98%E -1.81%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-22 10:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -5.98%E -1.81%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-22 10:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -5.98%E -1.81%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-22 10:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -11.68%E -3.77%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -5.88%E -1.93%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-22 09:39
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-22 09:29
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -14.53%E -4.84%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -11.13%E -3.86%K -5.92%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-22 09:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -14.53%E -4.84%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -11.13%E -3.86%K -5.92%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-22 09:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.46%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -14.53%E -4.84%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.94%EV -11.44%E -3.98%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-22 09:40
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.46%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -14.53%E -4.84%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.94%EV -11.44%E -3.98%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-22 09:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.89%EV -9.75%E -4.39%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.55%EV -9.40%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.56%EV -8.35%E -2.81%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-22 10:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -10.57%E -4.80%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -8.97%E -3.04%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-22 10:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -12.60%E -5.86%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -14.53%E -4.84%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -10.51%E -3.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-22 09:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.49%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%1.9%2026-05-22 10:20