The School of Odds
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FC Machida Zelvia v Kawasaki Frontale

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Machida Zelvia (Local)

Prediction 46.64%2.14fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -4.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.81%46.65%46.66%47.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.961.952.0553.19%50.93%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kawasaki Frontale (Visit)

Prediction 27.15%3.68fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.470%
Kelly -0.649%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.22%27.16%27.14%28.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.353.353.6231.75%29.89%29.85%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.20%3.82fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -0.753%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.70%26.19%26.20%26.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.483.403.7129.41%28.75%29.41%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Machida Zelvia (Local): 46.64%; Kawasaki Frontale (Visit): 27.15%; Draw: 26.20%. For Kawasaki Frontale (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.62, with an expected value of -1.70%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.20%EV -4.38%E -2.14%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.73%EV -1.70%E -0.470%K -0.649%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.08%EV -2.79%E -0.753%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-28 02:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -5.78%E -2.86%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -7.67%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 12:10
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -5.78%E -2.86%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -9.03%E -2.70%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-28 01:35
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -5.78%E -2.86%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -9.03%E -2.70%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-27 12:19
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.36%EV -6.71%E -3.36%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.68%EV -3.60%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -4.37%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-27 22:15
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.71%E -3.36%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.67%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-28 02:35
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.71%E -3.36%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.39%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-26 15:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.15%EV -7.64%E -3.86%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -11.75%E -3.61%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-27 12:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.60%EV -8.11%E -4.12%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.16%EV -8.22%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-27 17:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -9.04%E -4.64%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.22%EV -3.33%E -0.935%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-28 03:04
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.04%E -4.64%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -7.67%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-28 03:05
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.04%E -4.64%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -7.67%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-28 03:03
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.04%E -4.64%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -7.67%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-28 03:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.04%E -4.64%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -7.67%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-28 03:05
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.04%E -4.64%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -13.11%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-23 15:15
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.04%E -4.64%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -13.11%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-23 15:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.04%E -4.64%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -13.11%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-23 15:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.04%E -4.64%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -13.11%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-23 15:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.99%EV -10.44%E -5.44%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -14.46%E -4.59%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-27 12:19
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -10.91%E -5.71%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -10.39%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-27 22:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.11%EV -12.31%E -6.55%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -10.39%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-27 17:09
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.11%EV -12.31%E -6.55%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -10.39%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-27 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.54%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.24%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%3.0%2026-03-28 03:05