The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 07:00 UTC

Final: FC Machida Zelvia 0–0 Gamba Osaka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Machida Zelvia (Local)

Prediction 51.89%1.93fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -4.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.63%52.19%51.81%55.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.741.751.8663.69%57.46%57.14%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gamba Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 22.85%4.38fair odd
EV +7.39%
Edge +1.57%
Kelly +2.00%
Growth +0.147%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.73%22.58%22.92%23.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.194.004.7026.67%23.89%25.00%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.26%3.96fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.318%
Kelly -0.427%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.04%25.23%25.27%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.653.9129.41%27.51%27.40%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Machida Zelvia (Local): 51.89%; Gamba Osaka (Visit): 22.85%; Draw: 25.26%. For Gamba Osaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.38. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.39%EV -12.82%E -7.63%K -18.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV +7.39%E +1.57%K +2.00%G +0.147%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 06:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.39%EV -12.82%E -7.63%K -18.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV +7.39%E +1.57%K +2.00%G +0.147%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 06:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.54%EV -13.34%E -7.99%K -19.90%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV +7.39%E +1.57%K +2.00%G +0.147%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 06:00
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.54%EV -13.34%E -7.99%K -19.90%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV +7.39%E +1.57%K +2.00%G +0.147%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 06:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -13.86%E -8.35%K -20.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV +5.10%E +1.11%K +1.42%G +0.072%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 06:00
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -13.86%E -8.35%K -20.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV +5.10%E +1.11%K +1.42%G +0.072%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 06:00
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -13.86%E -8.35%K -20.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV +5.10%E +1.11%K +1.42%G +0.072%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 06:00
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -13.86%E -8.35%K -20.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV +5.10%E +1.11%K +1.42%G +0.072%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 06:10
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -13.86%E -8.35%K -20.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV +5.10%E +1.11%K +1.42%G +0.072%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 06:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -13.86%E -8.35%K -20.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV +5.10%E +1.11%K +1.42%G +0.072%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 06:10
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -13.86%E -8.35%K -20.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV +5.10%E +1.11%K +1.42%G +0.072%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 06:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.38%EV -14.89%E -9.08%K -23.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV +5.10%E +1.11%K +1.42%G +0.072%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 06:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.38%EV -14.89%E -9.08%K -23.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV +5.10%E +1.11%K +1.42%G +0.072%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 06:10
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.59%EV -8.15%E -4.60%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.32%EV +1.67%E +0.376%K +0.485%G +0.008%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.09%EV -4.53%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 06:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.58%EV -18.53%E -11.80%K -32.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.83%EV +0.531%E +0.121%K +0.156%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.58%EV -10.34%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%14.6%2026-11-01 06:10
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.67%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -1.75%E -0.408%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-01 06:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.71%EV -13.34%E -7.99%K -19.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -1.75%E -0.408%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 06:40
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.29%EV -4.00%E -2.16%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.98%EV -3.81%E -0.905%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.74%EV -1.24%E -0.318%K -0.427%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-01 06:55
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -7.63%E -4.29%K -9.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -4.04%E -0.962%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 06:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -8.67%E -4.92%K -11.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -4.04%E -0.962%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.90%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 06:40
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.41%EV -9.70%E -5.58%K -13.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -4.04%E -0.962%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 06:40
picklebet_au🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -4.04%E -0.962%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-01 06:55
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -5.03%E -2.75%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -6.32%E -1.54%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 06:50
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.16%EV -5.03%E -2.75%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -6.32%E -1.54%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 06:37
Bet Right🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.13%EV -8.67%E -4.92%K -11.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -6.32%E -1.54%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 06:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.33%EV -3.48%E -1.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -2.76%E -0.716%K -0.968%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-01 06:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.33%EV -3.48%E -1.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -2.76%E -0.716%K -0.968%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-01 06:55
BetAnything🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.33%EV -3.48%E -1.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -2.76%E -0.716%K -0.968%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-01 06:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -5.03%E -2.75%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 06:45
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -5.03%E -2.75%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 06:45
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 06:40
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 06:45
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 06:45
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 06:45
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 06:45
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 06:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 06:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.59%E -3.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 06:45
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -10.22%E -5.91%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-01 06:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -10.22%E -5.91%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-01 06:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-01 06:40
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -10.22%E -5.91%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -8.61%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-11-01 06:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -9.70%E -5.58%K -13.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -9.75%E -2.47%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 06:55
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.60%EV -10.22%E -5.91%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -10.89%E -2.79%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-01 06:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 53.36%EV -16.97%E -10.61%K -28.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.89%EV -10.89%E -2.79%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.75%EV -12.86%E -3.73%K -5.25%G +0.000%17.1%2026-11-01 06:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -13.18%E -3.47%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-01 06:40
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -13.18%E -3.47%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-01 06:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -13.18%E -3.47%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-01 06:40
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -9.18%E -5.25%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -13.18%E -3.47%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-01 06:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.26%EV -11.26%E -6.59%K -15.86%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.19%EV -13.63%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.55%EV -13.37%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%14.1%2026-11-01 06:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.87%EV -12.82%E -7.63%K -18.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -14.32%E -3.82%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.90%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%14.8%2026-11-01 06:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.24%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-11-01 06:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.24%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-11-01 06:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.24%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-11-01 06:50
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.24%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-11-01 06:50
Smarkets◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.21%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.87%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.92%1.6%2026-11-01 06:50
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.97%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-11-01 06:40

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