The School of Odds
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FC Machida Zelvia v FC Tokyo

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Machida Zelvia (Local)

Prediction 38.17%2.62fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.44%38.17%38.28%38.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.402.5343.48%41.66%41.67%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Tokyo (Visit)

Prediction 31.20%3.20fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.646%
Kelly -0.947%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.45%31.23%31.18%32.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.922.923.1436.36%34.20%34.25%31.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.63%3.27fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.69%30.60%30.55%31.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.902.982.963.1334.48%33.58%33.73%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Machida Zelvia (Local): 38.17%; FC Tokyo (Visit): 31.20%; Draw: 30.63%. For FC Tokyo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.14, with an expected value of -2.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 38.25%EV -3.43%E -1.35%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.82%EV -2.03%E -0.646%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.92%EV -4.14%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-01 09:45
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -6.48%E -2.64%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -4.84%E -1.59%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-01 09:40
BetAnything🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.48%E -2.64%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-01 09:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.48%E -2.64%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -7.96%E -2.70%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-01 09:55
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -6.48%E -2.64%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -5.06%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-01 09:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.22%EV -6.86%E -2.81%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.30%EV -7.02%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.48%EV -6.28%E -2.05%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 09:40
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.94%EV -7.62%E -3.15%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -8.89%E -3.05%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 09:55
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.94%EV -7.62%E -3.15%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -8.89%E -3.05%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-01 09:55
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.39%E -3.49%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-01 08:59
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.39%E -3.49%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-01 09:25
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.39%E -3.49%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-01 09:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.39%E -3.49%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-01 09:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.39%E -3.49%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-01 09:24
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.86%EV -9.15%E -3.85%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-01 09:39
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -9.15%E -3.85%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -12.64%E -4.51%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-01 09:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -9.15%E -3.85%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -12.64%E -4.51%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-01 09:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.36%EV -9.53%E -4.02%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.13%EV -8.89%E -3.05%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.51%EV -8.73%E -2.93%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-01 09:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -9.53%E -4.02%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -12.64%E -4.51%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-01 09:39
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -9.53%E -4.02%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -12.64%E -4.51%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-01 09:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -10.30%E -4.38%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -11.08%E -3.89%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -6.59%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-01 09:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.46%EV -12.21%E -5.31%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -11.08%E -3.89%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -11.18%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-01 09:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.23%EV -12.21%E -5.31%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -14.20%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -9.65%E -3.27%K -4.95%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-01 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.83%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%2.9%2026-04-01 09:45