The School of Odds
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Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fagiano Okayama (Local)

Prediction 29.75%3.36fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -0.828%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.17%29.78%29.71%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.063.103.2734.48%32.68%32.26%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vissel Kobe (Visit)

Prediction 39.04%2.56fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.46%39.06%39.11%40.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.372.4945.45%42.64%42.28%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.21%3.20fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.14%31.15%31.18%31.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.882.952.963.0734.72%33.86%33.84%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 29.75%; Vissel Kobe (Visit): 39.04%; Draw: 31.21%. For Fagiano Okayama (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.27, with an expected value of -2.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 29.60%EV -2.71%E -0.828%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.87%EV -2.79%E -1.12%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.53%EV -4.19%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 04:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -7.09%E -2.98%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.56%EV -7.62%E -2.58%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 04:49
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -6.28%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-05 04:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.28%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -7.09%E -2.98%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 04:50
BetAnything🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -6.28%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -8.26%E -3.51%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 04:50
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -7.77%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -7.09%E -2.98%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 04:49
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -7.77%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%EV -7.09%E -2.98%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -7.00%E -2.35%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-05 04:50
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -7.77%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%EV -7.09%E -2.98%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -7.00%E -2.35%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-05 04:50
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.77%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.09%E -2.98%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.50%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-05 04:29
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.77%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.09%E -2.98%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.50%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-05 04:30
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -7.77%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -10.12%E -3.51%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-05 04:10
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -7.77%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -12.16%E -5.40%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -7.94%E -2.69%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-05 04:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 29.56%EV -8.36%E -2.71%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.58%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -7.94%E -2.69%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 04:45
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-05 04:49
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-05 04:50
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.72%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -9.50%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-05 04:50
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.72%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -9.50%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-05 04:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.72%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -9.50%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-05 04:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.72%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -9.50%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-05 04:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.14%EV -13.72%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.73%EV -14.11%E -6.41%K -11.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.14%EV -9.50%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-05 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.